The COVID-19 vaccine rollout prevented hundreds of thousands of deaths from the disease in the U.S., a new study suggests.
Researchers from the Yale School of Public Health (YSPH) ran simulations to determine what would have happened if no vaccines had been distributed through summer 2021.
Results showed there would have been up to 279,000 more COVID-19-related deaths and 1.25 million hospitalizations from the virus.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, more than 606,000 American deaths have been recorded, but daily fatalities have fallen from an average of 4,000 deaths in early February 2021 during the winter surge to 230 this month, in large part thanks to the vaccine.
But the team says this progress could be reversed as the vaccination campaign stalls in the U.S. and the Indian 'Delta' variant continues to sweep across the country, causing surges in pockets of the U.S. with both high and low vaccination rates.
A new study found that with no COVID-19 vaccine rollout in the U.S., there would have been up to 279,000 additional deaths by this summer
If only half as many doses had been administered, there would have been more than 457,000 additional hospitalizations (green) and, with no vaccine, there would be 1.25 million additional hospitalizations (red)
'The vaccines have been strikingly successful in reducing the spread of the virus and saving hundreds of thousands of lives in the United States alone,' said lead author Dr Alison Galvani, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at YSPH, in a news release.
'Yet until a greater majority of Americans are vaccinated, many more people could still die from this virus. The danger is not over. Now is not the time to let down our guard.'
For the study, published by the private foundation The Commonwealth Fund, the team looked at the trajectory of the pandemic from October 1, 2020, through July 1, 2021.
They also looked at data surrounding vaccinations and adjusted for the emergence of highly transmissible variants including the Kent "Alpha' variant, the Brazilian 'Gamma' variant and the Delta variant.
The Delta variant has
