UK should be preparing for bird flu pandemic, scientist warns amid concern over ... trends now

The UK should be preparing for a bird flu pandemic amid concerns the virus could jump to humans, a leading public health expert has warned. 

Professor Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at Edinburgh University, said it is too early to say what will cause the next outbreak.

But there are 'signals' that there is a pattern emerging in avian flu's mutations, which means it could take off among humans at 'some point', according to the researcher, who advised the Scottish Government during the Covid crisis.

She called for the nation 'to prepare' to avoid a high death toll and disruptive restrictions which brought the country to a halt during the coronavirus pandemic. 

The ongoing UK bird flu outbreak — caused by the H5N1 strain — has seen up to one million birds struck down by the virus, with experts fearing it is on the brink of spreading among people.

Four British poultry workers have already tested positive for the strain this year. The virus is usually picked up through close contact with an infected bird.

Professor Sridhar, who has written a book called Preventable: How a Pandemic Changed the World and How to Stop the Next One, was yesterday asked about future outbreaks when she appeared at the Edinburgh International Book Festival.

She said: 'In terms of the next one, we can't say what it is but there are signals.'

Professor Sridhar added: 'We have enough signals to say there is a pattern emerging and that pattern isn't good in terms of the range of mutations we're seeing and it jumping into humans at some point, or other mammals that make the jump easier into humans.

'So we have to prepare — to avoid what happened, which was a tragedy for lives lost but also the restrictions put in place which harmed, as well, many people in terms of their livelihoods, mental health.'

She said she wrote her book 'partly for closure for me of what was a very difficult couple of years for the whole world' but also to capture the experience.

After the 1918 flu pandemic, she said that there had not been 'much written afterwards', saying that 'people just wanted to move forward'.

But she had written her book on the coronavirus outbreak because she 'thought before we move forward we need to remember and capture that'.

However, she said that time has been 'wasted' during Covid with Government leaders and health experts debating if action was necessary.

She said: 'I felt we wasted so much time in circles debating, "is the fatality rate 1 per cent or 3 per cent or 0.1 per cent", instead of actually working together and saying, "how do we contain this until we have vaccines, antivirals (and) doctors understand more about this disease".'

Professor Sridhar added: 'We spent a lot of debating is Covid worse than the restrictions — they're both bad.