The last time England played a European Championship match that couldn’t be lost, the 90 minutes turned into one of the most traumatic experiences in this nation’s football history.
June 27, 2016. England 1 Iceland 2. Many had already purchased tickets for the quarter-final against France in Paris, in anticipation of progress. And there was nothing like a landmark victory over Germany to justify the confidence back then, either.
Gareth Southgate’s England are bolstered by an optimism and confidence greater than anything experienced five years ago. This is a younger, brighter, better England team, coming off the back of the most positive statement the national team have made in 25 years, facing opposition 20 places below them in the world rankings.
What could possibly go wrong?
Gareth Southgate's England are optimistic ahead of their Euro 2020 last eight tie with Ukraine
But the Three Lions will do well to remember their last Euros exit - a 2-1 loss to Iceland in 2016
So seismic was the fault in English football that day only three of Southgate’s starting line-up, Harry Kane, Kyle Walker and Raheem Sterling, began the game in Nice, and only three more, Marcus Rashford, Jordan Henderson and John Stones, have been part of both squads.
Southgate has ushered in revolution, not evolution, since, the type that can only occur in the wake of catastrophe. Will it feel that way again if England fail to progress to the semi-final on Saturday? This is a young squad who have already beaten Germany, so there will be caveats. Unmistakeably, though, it would be a huge setback.
If England had been offered this fixture as a means of reaching the semi-final before the tournament started, a cry of hungry acceptance would have gone up before the sentence was completed. Saturday’s opponents, after all, were supposed to be Spain.
Ukraine cannot be taken lightly, then, but they can be received gratefully. That Southgate has spent the last two days fielding questions about complacency shows how this tie is viewed outside England’s camp.
Only seven out of England's 26-man squad at Euro 2020 this summer were in the 2016 squad
We have been here before, mind. In 2016, it is said England’s coaches celebrated the result that sent Iceland, not Portugal, their way. Yet with such apparent fortune comes a different challenge.
England’s brains scrambled when they lost an early lead, then fell apart as Iceland went ahead. Chasing a late equaliser, a teenage Marcus Rashford won a corner. With youthful enthusiasm he charged over to take it. Not one senior player pointed out he would be better off in the area. The corner was wasted. England went home.
Before departing for Rome, Harry Maguire reflected on the anxiety that can overcome England when expectation overwhelms. He was at the 2016 championship but as a fan not a player.
‘One thing we haven’t had in this tournament to now is a setback,’ he said. ‘We have always scored the first goal, we haven’t been behind. We do speak about things though, about different scenarios. I think that’s when the leaders would have to stand up because we have all experienced setbacks at club and international level.
Harry Maguire (right) has called on England's leaders to help avoid setbacks at the tournament
‘But, of course, we want to play aggressively, play on the front foot, we don’t want to go out with worry or fear. We want to be fearless, to express ourselves and to do that we can’t be worrying about the bad scenarios.’
It is a delicate balancing act. England need to play their game, the one all evidence suggests should be enough to defeat Ukraine, but equally they need to be prepared for moments of adversity — the troughs that Roy Hodgson’s squad found impossible to negotiate.
Southgate watched the Iceland game at home in Harrogate. He recalls it, not just through the prism of its impact on English football but on a personal level too, remembering the agony of his tournament predecessor, Hodgson.
