The IOC's medical and science director Dr Richard Budgett has just announced plans to release new transgender guidelines within two months.
And not before time. Each sport will need to 'balance' safety, fairness and inclusion. But can fairness for female athletes be traded off against inclusion of transgender athletes? How much unfairness would be tolerated? Who would decide?
The IOC promotes sport as a human right with fairness as the over-arching principle. But even the IOC now acknowledges current guidelines do not uphold either human rights or fairness for female athletes.
Laurel Hubbard will compete in the women's weigtlifting 87+ kg category in Tokyo on August 2
The 43-year-old's inclusion in the Olympics has sparked fresh debate about keeping sport fair
The IOC claims to support equality between the sexes, but will females get equal competition opportunities if fairness is 'balanced' with inclusion?
Women have had a long struggle for recognition and inclusion in elite sport. And dedicated female categories are central to the human rights and fair inclusion of female Olympians.
On Monday, the eyes of the world will be on New Zealander Laurel Hubbard, the first transwoman lifter in the Olympic female super-heavyweight category.
Under current compromised 2015 IOC Guidelines, Hubbard has qualified fairly and squarely.
But there is a 30 per cent performance gap between female and male lifters which increases with increasing body weight to nearly 40 per cent.
Hubbard at 43 is significantly older than other qualifiers and performance declines with age.
The scientist Dr Emma Hilton has shown that controlling for age, Hubbard still lifts within the male range and way outside the female range.
Initial 2003 IOC Guidelines recommended surgery, legal sex change and hormone therapy.
But the more lenient 2015 guidelines removed both surgery and legal recognition requirements. Instead, they permit self- declaration of female gender identity and testosterone suppression to less than 10 nanomoles per litre for 12 months before competition.
The weights Hubbard lifts controlling for age put the New Zealander within the male range
This is still within the male range of 7.7–29.4 nmol/l, whereas the female range is least 5 to 10 times lower at only 0–1.7 nmol/l. Plus, despite this glaring asymmetry, most medically transitioned transwomen already have testosterone levels well within the female range.
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