Two AFC contenders face off this Sunday in what may be the game of the week, as the Kansas City Chiefs travel to Nashville to take on the Tennessee Titans. These two teams rank in the bottom 10 of defenses around the league, so you can expect some points to be scored Sunday.
These two teams last met in the AFC Championship game a couple of years ago, when Patrick Mahomes guided the Chiefs to a 35-24 win and ultimately a Super Bowl. They also met in Nashville in the regular season that same year, and the Titans blocked a field goal at the end of regulation to escape with a 35-32 victory.
It's sure to be a fun one -- especially with the heater Derrick Henry has been on. Below, we will break down this matchup from a gambling perspective and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch Sunday's matchup.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watchDate: Sunday, Oct. 24 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, TN)
TV: CBS | Stream: Paramount+ (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Chiefs -4, O/U 57.5
Latest Odds: Tennessee Titans +4
This line reopened at Chiefs -3 last Tuesday, but increased from there. It moved to Chiefs -3.5 last Saturday, Chiefs -4 on Sunday night and Chiefs -4.5 on Monday. It rose all the way to Chiefs -5.5 on Tuesday, but then began to fall. On Wednesday, it went back down to Chiefs -5 and then to Chiefs -4.5 on Thursday before settling at the current line of Chiefs -4.
The pick: Titans +4. While both teams collected wins last week, the Titans' was a much more important one. They seemed to lose their status as legitimate AFC contenders with their loss to the New York Jets a couple of weeks ago, but they reasserted themselves with a huge upset victory over the Buffalo Bills, 34-31, on "Monday Night Football." The offense (apart from Henry of course) got back on track in the second half and the defense bent plenty but did not break -- holding the Bills to 2-for-5 in the red zone. The Titans have a chance to record another upset victory here. Either way, I believe this matchup is going to be close, so give me the points. Plus, Kansas City is 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games.
Over/Under 57.5Latest Odds: Over 57.5
The total reopened at 56.5 last Tuesday and remained there until Wednesday, when it rose a half point to 57. It's currently at 57.5
The pick: Over 57.5. Both teams are 4-2 to the Over this season, and the total has gone Over in five of Kansas City's last six games when playing on the road in Tennessee. The total has also gone Over in four of Tennessee's last five games. All the trends are pointing this way.
Player propsA.J. Brown receiving yards: Over 60.5 (-110). Brown hasn't had an incredible start to the season due to injury and food poisoning, but he appeared to get back on track Monday. In the second half of the Bills game, he caught seven passes for 91 yards. Brown was still battling the food poisoning this week, but he was a full participant in practice Friday and should be ready to roll against this subpar secondary.
Patrick Mahomes rushing yards: Over 18.5 (-115). Mahomes has rushed for at least 26 yards in each of the last four games. Coincidentally, the Titans also allowed Josh Allen to rush for 26 yards on Monday night. Against the Titans in the AFC Championship game, Mahomes rushed for 53 yards, so I'll take the Over.
Randy Bullock extra points: Over 2.5 (-110). I'm not doing as well as I did last year when it comes to kicking props, but I'm going to keep firing. If we are expecting points in this game, we can assume the Titans
