We have seen plenty of upsets in the NFL over the past few weeks, and it's getting harder to gamble correctly on games with all of the injuries and reserve/COVID-19 list placements. Thankfully, you've come to the right place if you're looking for some expert advice on what to do in Week 11 as games get set to kick off.
Each week, we'll collect all of the best picks and gambling content from CBSSports.com and SportsLine in one place, so you can get picks against the spread from our CBS Sports experts as well as additional feature content for each game, including plays from top SportsLine experts and the SportsLine Projection Model, best bets from our staff, survivor picks and more.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Which picks can you make with confidence in Week 11? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Visit SportsLine, as their incredible model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up almost $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six years ago.
Ravens at BearsTime: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Ravens -6.5, O/U 44.5
Current: Ravens -6, O/U 44.5
This is the point in the year where you really need to be careful in your survivor pool. If you're looking for advice, you've come to the right place, because you need to see which team the SportsLine Projection Model is backing. The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 11 of the 2021 season on an incredible 128-89 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates to the 2017 season.
The model likes Baltimore, but the Ravens are certainly not the only team you should look at. To read what the model has to say about Week 11, head on over to SportsLine.
Lions at BrownsTime: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Browns -10, O/U 46
Current: Browns -12.5, O/U 42.5
"There's going to be a ton of wind, a ton of rain, cold as hell, the Lions are 0-8-1, and they are going up against a team with a really good offensive line, and Nick Chubb is coming back and Nick Chubb is going to go nuke in this game. The Browns are going to run the ball a ton, the Lions are going to get down, they are going to be forced to try to throw the ball a bunch and it's just going to be a disaster in this kind of weather."
That's Will Brinson's take from the Pick Six Podcast, where he, R.J. White and Pete Prisco broke down all the games from a gambling perspective and gave out best bets on Friday -- as they do every week. Give it a listen below and subscribe for great NFL content in your feed daily.
Packers at VikingsTime: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Packers -1.5, O/U 50.5
Current: Packers -1, O/U 47.5
"I'm leery of the Packers as road favorites in this spot. First of all, I'm always somewhat hesitant to take a road favorite in a division game due to the familiarity between teams. Still, more than anything, I wonder about Green Bay's rushing defense. The Packers rank 27th in the NFL in defensive success rate and have struggled against the run. They rank 30th in success rate against the run and 30th in defensive EPA against the run. That's not a great matchup against Dalvin Cook and this Vikings offense. While the Vikings rush the ball only a little more often than the league average, they get extremely run-heavy in the red zone, rushing the ball 53% of the time (league average is 48.2%). They're effective with it, too, ranking seventh in the league in red-zone touchdown rate and fourth in goal-to-go conversion rate.
"None of which bodes well for a Packers defense that ranks 29th in red-zone efficiency. Now, Minnesota's defense hasn't exactly been lights out itself, so this isn't a situation where the wrong team is favored, but I do believe this to be a matchup in which the Vikings pose a lot more problems for Green Bay than the line suggests."
That's Tom Fornelli's take on this NFC North showdown. To read his Week 11 column, click here. #TrustTheProcess
Texans at TitansTime: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Titans -11, O/U 47
Current: Titans -10, O/U 44.5
"The Titans rolled up yet another win over a quality team and seem to be barreling toward the No. 1 seed, but the offense didn't play particularly well for a second straight week and has been reduced to a single player worth scheming to defend in A.J. Brown. One of these weeks, the Titans are going to put up a surprisingly low point total when they aren't catching breaks from their defense or the officials. Tyrod Taylor looked as bad as Davis Mills in his first game back, but he's had two more weeks to get healthier. Remember: he looked great before his injury, even in a half against the Browns defense. This number's too high for the current state of these teams." -- R.J. White in his SuperContest picks for Week 11.
R.J. has cashed twice in the Westgate SuperContest, widely considered the toughest sports gambling competition in the world. He's also hit on over 57% of his picks over the past six years combined. You can see all five of his Week 11 picks against the SuperContest lines and the Circa Sports Million lines by heading to SportsLine.
Colts at BillsTime: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bills -6.5, O/U 50.5
Current: Bills -7, O/U 49.5
"The Bills flexed back on the Jets last week and this is a bad matchup for the Colts. Buffalo has given up just two 100-yard team rushing games this year: one was Derrick Henry, the other was the Chiefs, which was a "dare-you-to-run" situation. They won't dare Indy to run because Sean McDermott wants Carson Wentz throwing as much as possible against his defense."
Will Brinson thinks the Bills win in a blowout. He broke down every game on the slate this week. To check out his column, click here.
Dolphins at JetsTime: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Dolphins -2.5, O/U 45.5
Current: Dolphins -3.5, O/U 44.5
"The Dolphins' defense is returning to form, as this unit has played well over the past couple weeks. They have recorded 9.0 sacks since Week 9, which is tied for most in the NFL during that time frame, and have recorded six takeaways over the past two games, which is again tied for the most in the NFL in that time frame. As for the Jets, their defense has been absolutely atrocious. They are coming off of a 45-17 beatdown suffered at the hands of the Buffalo Bills, and are allowing 32.9 points and 417.1 yards per game -- both of which rank dead last in the league and are the worst in franchise history.
"Joe Flacco is going to be starting for the Jets for the first time since being traded from the Philadelphia Eagles. He's going to be under some duress, however, as the Dolphins have gotten pressure on a league-high 35% of opponent dropbacks this season, according to TruMedia. The Jets have allowed pressure on 38% of dropbacks this season, which ranks the fourth-worst in the league. Three of the last four losses for the Jets have come by at least 15 points, so I'll lay three points with Tua Tagovailoa and Co."
That's my take on this AFC East showdown. In fact, it's my No. 1 pick of the week. To read this week's edition of #DajaniDimes, click here.
Saints at EaglesTime: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Eagles -1, O/U 44
Current: Eagles -2.5, O/U 42.5
"The Eagles are playing extremely well right now and Jalen Hurts is better than folks allowed a month ago. But Dennis Allen's defense is playing too well right now for whatever Nick Sirianni has cooked up."
CBS NFL Insider Jonathan Jones likes the Saints to score the upset win this week. To check out his other picks and his Insider notebook, click here.
49ers at JaguarsTime: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: 49ers -5.5, O/U 46.5
Current: 49ers -6.5, O/U 45
"The 49ers played exactly the type of football they want to play in their home upset against the Rams. They dominated on the ground and took advantage of the opposing offense's mistakes on defense. Jacksonville is surprisingly a top 10 defense against the run in DVOA, but did just allow Jonathan Taylor to average 5.5 yards per carry and 116 yards on the ground last week. If they play more like that on defense, they'll have a tough time staying competitive with an emerging Niners team."
Our guy Tyler Sullivan -- or Sully if you like -- loves the 49ers this week. I'd listen to him, as he's 27-19-4 on his locks of the week. To read his column, click here.
Washington at PanthersTime: Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Panthers -2.5, O/U 43.5
Current: Panthers -3.5, O/U 43
"Washington is without its two starting defensive ends, which will be a challenge. The Carolina defense is improving by the week, and it will force Taylor Heinicke into some turnovers. Carolina takes it."
CBS Sports' Pete Prisco brings up a good point about Washington not having Chase Young or Montez Sweat in this matchup. Newton brought some serious energy with him to Carolina. To read the rest of Prisco's Week 11 picks, click here.
Bengals at RaidersTime: Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS), stream on Paramount+ (click here)
Open: Bengals -1, O/U 48.5
Current: Bengals -1, O/U 50.5
"Just don't let Maxx Crosby and Yannick Ngakoue wreak havoc here, Bengals, and you will be in good shape. Plenty of Joe Mixon running at those ends is in order. We saw what happened when the Chiefs took what was there, and the Raiders have to respect the Bengals' many weapons in the passing game as well. The bye came at the perfect time for Cincy to reset and get healthy, while the Raiders are coming off a loss to the Chiefs that puts them at a crossroads. They haven't closed a season strong in a long time and Joe Burrow will be feeling as refreshed and renewed as he has in quite some time. The Bengals' defense may not be as good as it looked the first six weeks, but I also don't believe it can be as consistently bad moving forward as it was in the last two weeks before their bye."
CBS Sports NFL insider Jason La Canfora believes the Bengals will get back on track after their bye week. To read his picks column, click here.
Cardinals at SeahawksTime: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Seahawks -1, O/U 50
Current: Cardinals -1.5, O/U 47
"This is a big game for both teams, but I think it's a bigger game for the Seahawks, because if they lose, they'll fall to 3-7 and their playoff chances will essentially go down the toilet. Also, this week has the feeling of a get-right game for Wilson. For one, the Seahawks are playing at home, which is notable, because they have one of the best home-field advantages in football. Wait, I take that back. My crack research team has informed me that there's actually no advantage this year and that the Seahawks are 1-3 at home, so you could almost argue that playing at home is a disadvantage for the Seahawks.
"It might not have been an advantage early in the season, but it definitely is now. I mean, have you ever visited Seattle in November? Imagine Phoenix, except the exact opposite. The Cardinals aren't going to know what to do. Seattle is cold, rainy and miserable in November and guess what the weather is supposed to be like on Sunday? Cold, rainy and miserable.
"There's a reason Russell Wilson has a 15-4 career record at home in November."
John Breech thinks the Seahawks get back to winning ways this week. He writes what is probably the best picks column at CBS Sports, so go check it out here.
Cowboys at ChiefsTime: Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (Fox), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Chiefs -2.5, O/U 53
Current: Chiefs -2.5, O/U 56.5
"Leap to this conclusion at your own risk: One smashing victory by Kansas City erases a season filled with duds. Not buying it here. The Chiefs are 3-7 ATS, far removed from Dallas' 8-1 ledger against the line. The Cowboys' No. 1 league offense versus K.C.'s No. 26 defense has mismatch written all over it. (The reverse -- No. 4 vs. No 15 -- favors the Chiefs, but not as much.) The Chiefs' D is improving, but Dallas is coming off perhaps the most dazzling defensive performance of the season." -- Mike Tierney on why the Cowboys are part of his teaser picks for Week 11.
A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. He's crushed the NFL, going 347-291 on all NFL picks from 2016-20, returning $2,534 to $100 players. You can see all of his teaser picks for the week over at SportsLine.
Steelers at ChargersTime: Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC), stream on fuboTV (try for free)
Open: Chargers -3.5, O/U 48
Current: Chargers -5, O/U 47.5
Can Justin Herbert
