The Tampa Bay Buccaneers will try to edge closer to clinching the NFC South on Sunday when they visit the Atlanta Falcons. The Buccaneers have a three-game lead over Atlanta and New Orleans in the division and routed the Falcons 48-25 in Week 2. Tampa Bay (8-3) rallied from a 10-point halftime deficit to beat the Colts last week and has the NFL's top passing offense, led by MVP candidate Tom Brady. The Falcons (5-6) are led by veteran Matt Ryan, who has struggled mightily in recent weeks but faces a depleted Bucs defense.
Kickoff from Atlanta is set for 1 p.m. ET. The Bucs are 10.5-point favorites in the latest Buccaneers vs. Falcons odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the Over-Under is 50.5. Before you make any Falcons vs. Buccaneers picks, you need to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,100 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception six-plus years ago. The model enters Week 13 of the 2021 season on an incredible 131-94 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.
The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past five years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now, the model has broken down Sunday's Buccaneers vs. Falcons matchup from all angles and just revealed its coveted picks and NFL predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model's picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Falcons vs. Buccaneers:
Buccaneers vs. Falcons spread: Tampa Bay -10.5 Buccaneers vs. Falcons: 50.5 points Buccaneers vs. Falcons money line: Tampa Bay -550, Atlanta +400 TB: Buccaneers are 1-5 against the spread on the road after covering last week ATL: Falcons are 0-3 against the spread versus winning teams this seasonFeatured Game | Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brady is 9-0 straight-up and 8-1 against the spread in his career against the Falcons. His teams won by double-digits in five of those games. The Bucs are 4-0 ATS this season as double-digit favorites. Brady is second in the NFL with 3,403 passing yards and has a NFL-high 30 TD passes. He shouldn't face much pressure Sunday since the Falcons rank last in the league with 15 sacks, while Tampa Bay has yielded the same number, the fewest in the league. The Bucs also score a league-high 31.6 points per game, while the Falcons give up 27.5 (second-most).
The Bucs have an elite receiving duo in Chris Godwin (67 catches for 808 yards) and Mike Evans (640 yards, 10 TDs). Running back Leonard Fournette had a career-high four touchdowns and 131 total yards last week, while Gronkowski had 123 receiving yards. The Bucs' defense has been the best against the run for two years and is allowing 81 yards per game this year. It will put the onus on Matt Ryan to win it, and he has one TD pass and five interceptions the past three weeks.
Why the Falcons can coverRyan still has the skills to put up big numbers, but he has lacked weapons. The 14-year veteran quarterback has 2,617 yards and 16 TDs, and he can link up with tight end Kyle Pitts for big plays. The rookie leads the team with 45 catches for 661 yards (14.7 per reception). The health of Cordarrelle Patterson also has been critical to the team's success. The receiver/running back had 135 total yards and two TDs in last week's victory. He has 911 total yards and nine TDs. Atlanta's offense is averaging 6.7 yards per play when he is on the field and 3.9 when he isn't.
Ryan could surprise a Bucs secondary that has been ravaged by injuries and yielded 306 passing yards and three TDs last week against Carson Wentz. The home team is 7-2 against the spread in the last nine meetings between the teams. Dante Fowler had a sack last week to give him 3.5 in eight starts, and he has forced three fumbles. The Falcons are 8-9 ATS as an underdog the past two seasons.
How to make Buccaneers vs. Falcons picksThe model has zeroed in on Sunday's Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay matchup, and is leaning Over on the point total, with the model saying the quarterbacks will combine for more than 500 passing yards. It also says that one side of the spread cashes in more than 50 percent of simulations. You can only get the model's Falcons vs.
