The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns will put the finishing touches on Week 17 in the NFL when these AFC North rivals go head-to-head on "Monday Night Football." This game could very well be the final home game for quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who indicated earlier this week that he could retire following the 2021 campaign. Meanwhile, the Browns are just playing out the final two games after being eliminated from playoff contention due to Sunday's results.
In this space, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this matchup has on deck for us. We'll be taking a look at how the lines have shifted throughout the week leading into Monday night and, of course, give you our picks for this game along with a handful of our favorite player props.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watchDate: Monday, Jan. 3 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Heinz Field (Pittsburgh)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Browns -1, O/U 42
Latest Odds: Pittsburgh Steelers -2
The early look on the spread had Cleveland as a 2.5-point favorite, but that ticked up to -3 coming out of Week 16. As the week progressed, the number jumped up to Browns -3.5, but this number took a nosedive Sunday after Cleveland was eliminated from playoff contention. Over the span of 20 minutes Sunday evening, the spread went from Browns -3 to Browns -1.
The pick: Steelers +1. The narrative is just too big to ignore here with Roethlisberger possibly playing his final game at Heinz Field. He'll be leaving it all on the field, and it's safe to assume that the entire Steelers roster will want to send off the veteran quarterback with a win. As we noted, the Browns -- who are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as the favorite -- were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention, so you could also see this team start to take its foot off the gas a little bit as it plays out the string. With just a one-point cushion, it's probably worth just leaning on Steelers ML at +100.
Key trend: Steelers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games vs. AFC.
Over/Under totalAfter opening at 40.5, the total has increased as this matchup drew closer. It jumped to 41 on Wednesday before leaping a full point to 42 on Sunday morning.
The pick: Over 42. I think Roethlisberger will get a few extra chances to throw it around the field in this matchup, which should create some more scoring opportunities on Pittsburgh's side of things. Cleveland's defense is giving up 26.9 points per game on the road this season, which is nearly 10 points more than the 17.6 points per game they are allowing a home. While it's hard to trust the Browns offense, it is averaging roughly 24 points per game on the road this season, which should get us to tip over if that holds. The Over is also 6-2 in the Browns' last eight games against the AFC North.
Key trend: The total has gone Over in four of the Steelers' last five games as an underdog.
Ben Roethlisberger props Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +115, Under -145) Passing yards: 235.5 (Over -115, Under -115) Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -105, Under -125) Completions: 21.5 (Over -115, Under -115) Longest passing completion: 35.5 (Over -115, Under -115)Roethlisberger only has five multi-touchdown games this season, so that may not be the best way to lean even if the +115 is tempting. If you're trying to ride the final game narrative, taking the Over on his 235.5 passing yards at -115 might be the safer way to go. He's gone over this number eight times this season, including back in Week 8 when he threw for 266 against this Browns defense. Coming into Week 17, Cleveland is allowing 254.7 yards passing per game on the road.
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +140, Under -170) Passing yards: 227.5 (Over -115, Under -115) Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -145, Under +115) Completions: 20.5 (Over +100, Under -130) Longest passing completion: 34.5 (Over -120, Under -110)Over his last five games, Mayfield has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns, and he will now face a Steelers secondary that has recently had a nose for the football. In the last three weeks, Pittsburgh is averaging two takeaways per game. Given that matchup and the fact that Mayfield threw four picks last week, taking the Over on his interceptions total is a solid way to lean. I'd also roll with the Under on his 227.5 passing yards, which is a number he's failed to go over in six of his last seven starts. Meanwhile, the Steelers are allowing just 208.6 passing yards at home this season.
Player props to considerChase Claypool total receiving yards: Over 36.5 (-115). Claypool has only failed to go over this number in three of his 13 games played this season. He's averaging nearly seven targets per game this season, and
