sport news Aaron Rodgers undervalued? Tom Brady overrated? Fantasy football is back, but ... trends now

The NFL is back, and with it, the 2022 fantasy football season.

For all the talk about the demise of the running back, most of whom now share snaps in teams' ongoing efforts to reduce injuries, many top fantasy players can still be found at the position.

Even fantasy football novices can find the value in Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor, who led the NFL with 92 touches in the red zone in 2021, or Carolina Panthers star Christian McCaffrey, who ranks among the best in the game when healthy.

Tennessee's Derrick Henry, Pittsburgh's Najee Harris, and the Los Angeles Chargers' Austin Ekeler have all proven to be three-down workhorses, and none of that changes heading into the 2022 campaign.

For that matter, the elites at quarterback and wide receiver are all well known to casual and obsessed fantasy football fans.

Los Angeles Chargers signal caller Justin Herbert now ranks among the best passers, while Los Angeles Rams receiver Cooper Kupp is now the unquestioned leader at his position.

The challenge for fantasy football fans in 2022 is, as always, finding value in the middle rounds of the draft and avoiding pitfalls, like injuries and sudden declines in production.

The following is a look at some of the more undervalued — and overvalued — players at quarterback and the FLEX positions as you prepare for your 2022 fantasy football draft.

QUARTERBACK

UNDERVALUED

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders: Perhaps no offseason move had a bigger impact in the 2022 fantasy football season as the Raiders' signing of Green Bay Packers receiver Davante Adams. Aaron Rodgers' former favorite target was a college teammate of Carr's at Fresno State, so the pair has some familiarity, and Adams hauled in a remarkable 72.8 percent of passes thrown his way in 2021. In fact, he was even better in 2020, recording a 77.2 percent catch rate as Rodgers won the first of his back-to-back MVPs.

But the biggest reason Carr ranks among the most underrated quarterbacks isn't his newest target, but rather, an offensive line that couldn't possibly be any worse than it was last season. With rookie Alex Leatherwood struggling to adapt at right guard in 2021, the Raiders allowed Carr to be sacked 40 times (more than all but four quarterbacks), and yet he still posted a solid QB rating of 94.

With Leatherwood switching to right tackle, where he was projected before being drafted, and the addition of veteran guard Alex Bars, even a modest improvement could pay big dividends for Carr and new coach, former Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.

Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts: It's easy to forget about a 14-year NFL veteran entering his first season with a new team that isn't expected to compete for a Super Bowl, but that's exactly why Ryan finds himself on the 'underrated' list.

A year ago he finished in the bottom third of fantasy QBs with the rebuilding Atlanta Falcons. Now, on a Colts team that boasts breakout stars like receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and running back Jonathan Taylor, Ryan is no longer being relied upon to carry the offense. Throw in the NFL's tenth-ranked offensive line, according to Pro Football Focus, and Ryan is poised for a major rebound in the AFC South.

Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers: Yes, somehow, the NFL's reigning two-time MVP is underrated, at least as far as fantasy football is concerned. Without the departed Adams, Rodgers is getting ranked near the middle of QBs heading into rotisserie drafts.

But Rodgers has survived the departure of top receivers before (Randall Cobb in 2018), and now, he finds himself playing behind an improving offensive line. Not only are interior lineman Jon Runyan, Josh Myers, and Jake Hanson all capable, young players, but veteran tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins have a chance to return from their 2021 knee injuries early in 2022. Such a development would give Green Bay one of the best units is the NFC.

Keep an eye on receiver Allen Lazard, who has the best chance to fill Adams's shoes, given his familiarity with Rodgers and the offense.

OVERVALUED

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Following a 40-day retirement, Brady reclaims his throne as the most visible player in the NFL, and one of the most consistent fantasy football performers over the last two decades.

But in case you haven't heard, the man is 45, he's lost his favorite target in Rob Gronkowski to retirement, and injuries to centers Ryan Jensen and Robert Hainsey will complicate Brady's season significantly.

Don't read too far into the acquisition of Julio Jones, whose catch rate regressed to 65 percent last season in Tennessee after hitting a career-high with Ryan in Atlanta at 75 percent in 2020. He could draw some attention in the red zone away from elite receiver Mike Evans, but Brady and the Bucs needs someone to move the chains — particularly with conditioning concerns surrounding running back Leonard Fournette.

Brady's recent leave of absence isn't much of an issue yet, given his track record, but his once overwhelming array of weapons in Tampa is starting to look depleted.

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: With a new five-year, $230 million contract in hand, the NFL's best baseball player should be in a good head space heading into the season.

And given his running ability (nearly 2,000 yards over three seasons), Murray remains one of the best options at quarterback because he doesn't need to be killing teams through the air in order to have success.

The problem is, Murray will be without suspended receiver DeAndre Hopkins for six games, and his production suffered under such circumstances last season (just 18.8 fantasy points per game without Hopkins in 2021).

The addition of Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown should help offset that loss, given that he played with Murray in college and has some familiarity with his new quarterback.

However, the loss of receiver Christian Kirk and running back Chase Edmonds leaves a sizable hole in production. Both combined for around a quarter of the team's targets and receptions last year not to mention 18.5 percent of the team's touchdowns.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs: His arm, accuracy, and ability to conjure up the unthinkable leaves Mahomes as one of the best quarterbacks in fantasy football.

But without receiver Tyreek Hill, who was traded to the Miami Dolphins, the Chiefs offense has a desperate need for speed. As a deep threat, Hill occupied safeties and spread defenses thin.

Mahomes no longer has that luxury, and he's coming off career low passing grade, according to PFF, and had a career-high 16 interceptions in 2021.

Nobody is going to tease you for drafting Mahomes, but he may not be the fantasy football trump card we all figured him to be.

RUNNING BACK

UNDERVALUED

Travis Etienne Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars: It's easy to forget about a guy who missed his rookie season with with a foot issue — particularly at running back.

But the former Clemson star appears to have a hold on a starter's job, and that not only gives him the chance to carry the football, but in all likelihood, become one of quarterback Trevor Lawrence's top targets as well. That means Etienne can pay dividends in a PPR (points per reception) league or a non-PPR league.

The dual-threat running back had 6,107 total yards, 87 touchdowns, and 788 touches at Clemson alongside Lawrence, who clearly has a lot of faith in Etienne.

Furthermore, James Robinson is still recovering from his achilles injury, and Etienne may have a chance to win the job outright before his fellow running back returns.

Ken Walker III, Seattle Seahawks: Someone has to touch the football in Seattle, and it might as well be the second-round pick out of Michigan State.

He's not an Alvin Kamara-type, like Etienne, but he does fit in the Spartan tradition of fantasy workhorses, like Le'Veon Bell.

And given the uncertainty at quarterback, it's a safe bet that offensive coordinator Shane Waldron will want to keep the football on the ground.

Starter Rashaad Penny has struggled to stay on the field since 2018, and Walker's durability could be the perfect insurance policy for this fledgling offense.