NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, best bets, predictions for Week 1, 2022: Model high on Vikings and Colts

A high-scoring game is expected in the desert on Sunday afternoon, when Chiefs vs. Cardinals is given an over-under of 53.5. That number comes courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and it's the largest total amongst all Week 1 NFL games in the latest NFL odds. While both squads have questions at receiver, there are no such issues under center, with Patrick Mahomes and Kyler Murray being prototypical quarterbacks in today's game. Cardinals vs. Chiefs is one of three Sunday games on the Week 1 NFL schedule with an over-under of at least 50. The others are Raiders vs. Chargers (52) and Cowboys vs. Buccaneers (51). Last year's opening week saw seven games reach 50 total points, but is that enough to convince you to back the over with these three matchups? Which NFL spreads should you target? All of the Week 1 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 1 NFL picks now. 

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up over $7,500 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 138-97 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season. Amazingly, it hasn't missed a top-rated pick since Week 15 last season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94 percent of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up. 

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 1 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 1 NFL predictions

One of the top Week 1 NFL predictions the model recommends: The Vikings (+1.5) cover against the Packers in well over 50 percent of simulations. Recent trends favor the underdog Vikings in this matchup. Since 2014, underdogs are 28-9-2 ATS (76%) in Week 1 divisional games. Minnesota also both won and covered in last year's home game against the Packers.

Much has been made about Green Bay losing Davante Adams, but it also lost its best pass-rusher, Za'Darius Smith. He had 26 sacks from 2019-20 before missing all but one game in 2021, and he ended up, in all places, with the rival Vikings. He knows Green Bay's scheme as well as anyone and will only add to a pass rush which accumulated the second-most sacks (51) last year. The model has the Vikings (+1.5) covering as home underdogs in well over 50 percent of simulations. See who else to back here.

Another one of its Week 1 NFL predictions: The Colts (-7) cover the spread on the road versus the Texans. Indianapolis was an eight-point favorite at one point this week, but the line has tumbled to seven, creating an even larger opportunity for Colts backers.

David Culley's lone season at the helm of the Texans resulted in a 4-13 record and now the franchise is starting over again with former Bears and Buccaneers head coach Lovie Smith. He'll inherit a squad that was bottom-six in total offense, scoring offense, total defense and scoring defense. The model sees Colts quarterback Matt Ryan improving Indianapolis' passing attack and predicts running back Jonathan Taylor goes off for well over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown to help the Colts cover in 60 percent of simulations. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 1 NFL picks 

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 1 NFL schedule, and it's calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned over $7,500 since its inception, and find out.

Week 1 NFL odds, lines, spreads

Get full NFL picks at SportsLine

Sunday, Sept. 11

Ravens at Jets (+7, 44.5)

Browns at Panthers (-1.5, 42)

Colts at Texans (+7, 45.5)

Jaguars at Commanders (-2.5. 44)

Patriots at Dolphins (-3.5, 46.5)

Saints at Falcons (+5.5, 42.5)

Eagles at Lions (+4, 48.5)

Steelers at Bengals (-6.5, 44.5)

49ers at Bears (+7, 41)

Packers at Vikings (+1.5, 47)

Chiefs at Cardinals (+6.5, 53.5)

Raiders

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