sport news Computer simulates AFL Brownlow Medal count 10,000 times and pinpoints only two ... trends now
Footy's night of nights is coming this Sunday, and statistics experts who ran 10,000 computer simulations have concluded there are just six players who can take out the coveted Charles Brownlow Medal.
Two in particular however - Clayton Oliver and 2020 winner Lachie Neale - are way out in front of the rest, and are heavily favoured to take out the medal affectionately known as 'Chaz'.
Popular sport statistics website Stats Insider recently published their predictions for the 2022 medal count, with voting simulated more than 10,000 times in order to 'find the most likely outcome'.
One of the most popular betting events on the Aussie sport calendar, it also gives eager punters the opportunity to find the best value and the safest outcomes for a night that has thrown up many a curveball in the past.
Port Adelaide midfielder Ollie Wines raises his glass after being anointed the winner of the 2021 Brownlow Medal
Neale has been dynamic for the Lions this year, and is considered a 37.1 per cent chance of winning; while Oliver, who finished third in last year's count, is seen as a 35 per cent probability.
Essentially, it's almost an unbackable proposition that one of the two bullish inside midfielders will win the medal.
After them, the challengers drop off dramatically.
Lachie Neale (left) and Clayton Oliver (right) are expected to be the two clear favourites for the Brownlow Medal on Sunday night
Carlton superstar Patrick Cripps is the next closest at half the chances of the first two - though he does appear to be a lock for the podium (84.6 per cent) if the simulation is anything to go by.
Touk Miller, Andrew Braysaw and Christian Petracca are the only other players who are seen as a remote possibility of taking out the medal, with everyone else completely written off.
Betting markets appear to be trending in a similar way to the Stats Insiders prediction, although it is set to be one of the closest finishes of the last few years.
Stats Insider's guide on the 2022 Brownlow Medal include a computer which simulated the more than 10,000 times
It's just the second time since 2012 that the favourite is not shorter than $3, with punters likely to get
