Week 4 of the 2022 NFL schedule begins with Thursday Night Football as the Miami Dolphins take on the Cincinnati Bengals in a clash of AFC teams. Miami is 3-0 this season after a memorable win over the Buffalo Bills in Week 3. Cincinnati is 1-2 overall, though the Bengals topped the New York Jets last week to avoid a disastrous start following a trip to the Super Bowl.
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Cincinnati. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bengals as four-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 47 in the latest Dolphins vs. Bengals odds. Before you make any Bengals vs. Dolphins picks and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine's resident Dolphins expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Entering the 2022 NFL season, he is 427-344 all-time on NFL sides (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS (58 percent) and 8-3 on money-line plays last season for a profit of $1,552.
In addition, Hartstein has gone 21-10-1 on his last 32 picks involving the Dolphins, returning almost $1,000. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Dolphins vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Dolphins vs. Bengals:
Dolphins vs. Bengals spread: Bengals -4 Dolphins vs. Bengals over/under: 47 points Dolphins vs. Bengals money line: Bengals -205, Dolphins +170 Miami: Dolphins are 12-7-1 against the spread in their last 20 games Cincinnati: Bengals are 15-9 against the spread in their last 24 games Why the Dolphins can coverThe Dolphins are scoring 2.81 points per drive and racking up points on 44.4% of possessions, both of which rank in the top five of the NFL. Miami is averaging 27.7 points per game, with the Dolphins giving the ball away only twice in the first three games.
The Dolphins rank in the top five in passing yards per game, passing touchdowns, and yards per pass attempt, helping Miami to average 6.4 yards per play, No. 3 in the league. Miami is also moving the chains on 48.5% of third down opportunities, and red zone performance has been a strength. With quarterback Tua Tagovailoa (back/ankle) playing the best football of his young career, the Dolphins have produced seven touchdowns on nine trips inside the 20-yard line this season, and Tagovailoa is No. 2 in the NFL in passer rating.
Why the Bengals can coverCincinnati has star power on offense, from Joe Burrow at quarterback to a notable and talented group of skill players including Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon. The Bengals are in the top five with 71 first downs this season, but it is Cincinnati's defense that has performed at a high level through three games. The Bengals have allowed only 55 points in three games, a top-10 mark, and opponents are scoring only 1.77 points per drive.
Cincinnati is also holding opponents to 310.3 total yards and 17 first downs per game, with the opposition generating only 5.3 net yards per pass attempt. The Bengals are holding up effectively against the run, ranking in the top 10 in yards allowed, and yielding only 3.7 yards per carry this season. Miami ranks in the bottom three of the NFL in yards per carry (3.3) and rushing yards per game (64.0), so the Bengals can key on slowing the Dolphins' explosive passing attack.
How to make Dolphins vs. Bengals picksHartstein has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning Under on the point total, he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.
