Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals will take on Tua Tagovailoa and the Miami Dolphins in Week 4. The Bengals and Dolphins will face off at Paycor Stadium on Thursday Night Football in the first game of the week. Cincinnati is 1-2 this season and coming off an important Week 3 victory over the New York Jets. Miami is unblemished at 3-0 and riding high after a win over the Buffalo Bills. The Under has hit in all three Bengals games this season and in two of Miami's three outings.
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET in Cincinnati. Caesars Sportsbook lists the Bengals as 3.5-point home favorites, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 48.5 in the latest Dolphins vs. Bengals odds. Before you make any Bengals vs. Dolphins picks and NFL predictions, see what SportsLine's resident Dolphins expert, Larry Hartstein, has to say.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. Entering the 2022 NFL season, he is 427-344 all-time on NFL sides (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS (58 percent) and 8-3 on money-line plays last season for a profit of $1,552.
In addition, Hartstein has gone 21-10-1 on his last 32 picks involving the Dolphins, returning almost $1,000. Anyone who has followed him is way up.
Now, Hartstein has set his sights on Dolphins vs. Bengals on Thursday Night Football. You can head to SportsLine to see his picks. Now, here are several NFL betting lines and trends for Dolphins vs. Bengals:
Dolphins vs. Bengals spread: Bengals -3.5 Dolphins vs. Bengals over/under: 48.5 points Dolphins vs. Bengals money line: Bengals -195, Dolphins +162 Miami: Dolphins are 12-7-1 against the spread in their last 20 games Cincinnati: Bengals are 15-9 against the spread in their last 24 games Why the Dolphins can coverMiami is buoyed by one of the most dynamic wide receiver duos in the NFL. Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill are just the second pairing in NFL history to have at least 300 receiving yards apiece in the first three weeks. Both rank in the top five of the league in receiving yards, and Hill is bringing a new threat to Miami's offense. The six-time Pro Bowler and three-time All-Pro selection is in the top five with 14.7 yards per touch and has 317 yards and two touchdowns in three games. Hill was also in the top 10 in receiving yards (1,239) and receiving touchdowns (nine) last season, with a long track record of success.
Waddle set the NFL's rookie receptions record with 104 catches last season and ranks in the top 10 in receptions and yards since the start of the 2021 season. In 2022, Waddle leads the NFL with 17.1 yards per touch, and quarterback Tua Tagovailoa currently ranks in the top five in completion rate (71.3%), yards per pass attempt (9.2), passing touchdowns (eight), passing yards (925), passer rating (117.8), and QBR (82.8) through three games.
Why the Bengals can coverThe Bengals are above the NFL average in generating 21.3 points per game and in the top five of the league with 71 first downs. Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, and Tee Higgins form an uber-elite quartet for the Bengals, and this is a friendly matchup against a scuffling Miami defense. The Dolphins are allowing 413.7 yards per game and 44.1 yards per drive this season, landing in the bottom five of the NFL in both categories.
Miami is also yielding almost 300 passing yards per game, and opponents have 71 first downs against the Dolphins. With the Dolphins also giving up 5.0 yards per carry and 116 rushing yards per game, Cincinnati should be able to establish Joe Mixon and the ground attack, as the Dolphins are allowing the opposition to convert 48.6% of third-down opportunities.
How to make Dolphins vs. Bengals picksHartstein has analyzed this matchup and while we can tell you he's leaning Under on the point total, he has discovered a critical X-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. He's only sharing what it is, and which
