NFL odds, lines, picks, spreads, best bets, predictions for Week 4, 2022: Model picking Steelers, Lions

When looking at the Week 4 NFL odds, there's one game that's an outlier compared to the others. Every game features NFL spreads of under a touchdown except for Packers vs. Patriots, which has Green Bay as a 10.5-point home favorite at Caesars Sportsbook. You could understand why the Patriots are such heavy underdogs since Mac Jones (ankle) is expected to be out for weeks, while Aaron Rodgers is coming off a road win versus Tampa Bay.

Eagles vs. Jaguars features Philadelphia as a 6.5-point favorites, one of the largest NFL spreads of the week. That game is a reunion for former Philly coach Doug Pederson, who has already matched Urban Meyer in wins as Jaguars coach (two). Which side should you lean towards in that contest, and who should get your Week 4 NFL bets for Patriots vs. Packers? All of the Week 4 NFL lines are listed below, and SportsLine's advanced computer model has all the NFL betting advice and predictions you need to make the best Week 4 NFL picks now.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, is up almost $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception. The model enters Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season on an incredible 139-103 run on top-rated NFL picks that dates back to the 2017 season.

The model also ranked in the top 10 on NFLPickWatch four of the past six years on straight-up NFL picks and beat more than 94% of CBS Sports Football Pick'em players four times during that span. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now, it has turned its attention to the latest Week 4 NFL odds from Caesars and locked in picks for every NFL matchup. Head here to see every pick.

Top Week 4 NFL predictions

One of the model's strongest Week 4 NFL picks is that the Steelers (-3) cover against the Jets. Coach Robert Saleh says he expects Zach Wilson (knee) to be under center, but he's not necessarily an upgrade over Joe Flacco. Last year, Wilson ranked last in completion percentage, touchdown-to-interception ratio, passer rating, and sacks per game.

That last stat could be the biggest concern come Sunday since Jets left tackle George Fant exited his last game. New York is already without its top two offensive tackles, so they could be down to No. 4 and No. 5 at the position if Fant can't suit up. With or without Fant, the model predicts Pittsburgh's defense to wreak havoc in the backfield since it projects the Steelers to have four sacks. Pittsburgh is forecasted to win by eight points, per the model and thus cover in nearly 60 percent of simulations.

Another one of its Week 4 NFL predictions: The Lions (-4) cover the spread at home versus the Seahawks. Detroit is coming off a disappointing 28-24 defeat against the Vikings that saw the defense give up 14 points in the fourth quarter. Despite the defeat, the Lions will enter Sunday's matchup confident they can secure the victory at home.

Quarterback Jared Goff has been playing well through the first three weeks, throwing for 748 yards, seven touchdowns and just two interceptions. Meanwhile, the Seahawks have been disappointing after beating the Broncos in their season-opener, losing their last two games. Seattle's defense is giving up 397.3 yards per game this season, which doesn't bode well against a Detroit offense averaging 409.0 yards per game, the third-best mark in the NFL. That's one of the main reasons why SportsLine's model projects the Lions will cover the spread over 50% of the time. See which other teams to pick here.

How to make Week 4 NFL picks

The model has also made the call on who wins and covers in every other game on the Week 4 NFL schedule, and it's calling for a Super Bowl contender to go down hard. You can only get every pick for every game at SportsLine.

So what NFL picks can you make with confidence? And which Super Bowl contender goes down hard? Check out the latest NFL odds below, then visit SportsLine to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model that has returned almost $7,000 since its inception, and find out.

Week 4 NFL odds, lines, spreads

Get full NFL picks at SportsLine

Sunday, Oct. 2

Vikings at Saints (+2.5, 43.5)

Featured Game | New Orleans Saints vs. Minnesota Vikings