Can Seahawks' Geno Smith continue to play like one of the NFL's best QBs? Let's dive deep into the stats

Up in Seattle, Geno Smith is 2,591 miles from Morgantown, West Virginia, but the Seahawks quarterback is playing like he's back slinging it for the Mountaineers.

During his days belting "Country Roads" by John Denver, Smith threw 97 touchdowns to just 20 interceptions, including a dazzling 42-touchdown, seven-interception senior season in which he completed 71.2% of his throws. 

This year, his 10th in the NFL, Smith is completing a league-high 77.3% of his throws at 7.9 yards per attempt with six touchdowns and two interceptions en route to a passer rating of 108 during the Seahawks' 2-2 start.

And we've never really seen this Smith before as a professional. For as fantastic of a comeback story Smith has been, there aren't many who believe he will continue to play like West Virginia Geno. Can he though?

While attempting to answer that question -- something I did not think I'd be doing this season -- I also discovered why Smith has been so efficient in the first month of the season. Seattle's protecting him well, and he's dicing up secondaries from inside the pocket. 

And a clean-pocket play is more predictive than under-pressure performance, which bodes well for his immediate future as the Seahawks quarterback. 

Here's how Smith has operated from a clean pocket to date this season, compared to the rest of his career in that scenario.

Smith so far in 2022 (four starts)

84.9%

8.1

5

1

Smith's career before 2022 (38 starts)

78.3%

7.63

27

24

Yeah, he's playing a little out of his mind. Now, I will say, the second row does include a 11-touchdown, 14-interception disaster as a rookie. Also, in 2021 for Seattle, Smith's adjusted completion rate was a gargantuan 91.9% at 9.5 yards per attempt with five touchdowns without an interception. Across his 166 clean-pocket attempts with the Seahawks: 8.3 yards per attempt, an adjusted completion percentage of 86.8 with 10 touchdowns and one pick. In short, Smith's been cooking as a member of the Seahawks.

And this season, it's not as if Smith's feasted on a quartet of brutal defenses. The Broncos are sixth in Football Outsiders' pass defense DVOA. The 49ers are fourth, the Falcons 17th and the Lions 24th. 

Back to the pressure. Unsurprisingly, Smith's worst outing of the season came against Nick Bosa and Co. And what do you know, the 49ers are currently second in team pressure-creation rate at 41.4%. 

Of course, there's room for volatility with this pressure-rate statistic given the small sample size we have right now, but here's the list of defenses Smith and Seattle's offensive line are set to face over the next 13 games, and where those units currently rank in pressure-creation rate: 

Week 5, Saints - 32nd Week 6 and 9 - Cardinals - 27th  Week 7, Chargers - 14th (no Joey Bosa) Week 8, Giants - 9th Week 10, Buccaneers - 10th Week 12, Raiders - 20th  Week 13 and 18, Rams - 31st Week 14, Panthers - 6th 
Week 15, 49ers - 2nd Week 16, Chiefs - 23rd Week 17, Jets - 17th

Any quarterback would gladly accept that lineup of pass rushes over a 13-game stretch in today's NFL. The schedule absolutely could be much more daunting. 

With two rookies at tackle -- Charles Cross and Abraham Lucas -- Seattle's offensive line, in theory, should improve as the season progresses, unless either or both hit the rookie wall in December. 

Smith's best-in-the-league completion rate hasn't been buoyed by a plethora of quick throws, conservative checkdowns, etc -- modes of operation that almost always lead to a quarterback eventually regressing, because eventually the throws to the intermediate level and down the field have to be made, as defenses learn to sit on everything underneath. 

Smith's average depth of target (aDOT) is smack dab in the middle of the NFL at 8.1 yards, tied with Tom Brady and Joe Burrow. Entering Week 5, he has the eighth-most completions at the intermediate level and is tied for the eighth-most completions 20 or more yards downfield. His stat line is legit. 

Plus, the Seahawks are throwing the ball on early downs -- the optimal downs to pass. Smith's 39 attempts on first down in neutral situations (scoring margin between -8 and 8 points) are tied for the fourth-highest in football. And his nearly 30% play-action rate is the 11th-highest figure among qualifying quarterbacks. The Seahawks have escaped the stone ages with their offensive philosophy! 

Don't forget, offensive coordinator Shane

قراءة المزيد ...