Two AFC foes face off tonight in Indianapolis, as Kenny Pickett and the Pittsburgh Steelers visit Jeff Saturday and the Colts. While the Steelers lost to the Cincinnati Bengals last week, they scored a season-high 30 points. The Colts are also coming off of a loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, but they've covered the spread in both of the two games Saturday has coached.
This is the first game that the Saturday-led Colts have been favored in. Is Vegas correct in its assumption, or is Mike Tomlin's team ready to put together a strong second half of the season? Below, we will break down this Monday night matchup from a gambling perspective, and examine the line movement, Over/Under and player props to consider. First, here's how you can watch the game.
All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watchDate: Monday, Nov. 28 | Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
TV: ESPN | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Colts -2.5, O/U 39.5
Featured Game | Indianapolis Colts vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
This line reopened at IND -3 on Tuesday, Nov. 15. It fell to IND -2.5 last Sunday, and was briefly listed at IND -3 on Monday before falling back down to IND -2.5.
The pick: Steelers +2.5. I think the wrong team is favored in this matchup. The Colts are 1-4 ATS as favorites this season, and have won just one of the five games they have been favored in. Containing Jonathan Taylor is going to be important in this matchup, but Pittsburgh has the sixth-best run defense in the NFL, allowing an average of 103.4 rushing yards per game. A reason Matt Ryan was benched earlier in the year was because he struggled to move around in the pocket and avoid pressure. Having T.J. Watt chasing him is going to be fun to watch.
Offensively, the Steelers aren't some must-watch unit, but the pieces are there. Najee Harris had two touchdowns last week, and George Pickens caught four passes for 83 yards and a touchdown. Pickett threw for 265 yards and a touchdown while registering an 85.9 quarterback rating. He's clearly learning with each start, and is primed to earn his first career road victory. The Steelers have won the past seven meetings against the Colts. Give me Pittsburgh with the upset.
Over/Under 39.5The total reopened at 39.5 on Tuesday, Nov. 15. This past Monday, it fell to 39, but bumped back up to 39.5 this weekend.
The pick: Over 39.5. The Under has been a cash cow for the Colts, as they are 9-2 to the Under this season. The Steelers also hit the Under more often than not at a 6-4 clip. Anytime a total is under 40, it basically becomes a stay-away for me. On one hand I like to root for points, but on the other, the statistics say to go ahead and take the Under. I'm going to take the Over for fun, but this is just a lean.
Kenny Pickett propsPassing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +196, Under -284)
Passing yards: 212.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: OFF
Passing completions: OFF
Longest passing completion: 32.5 (Over -129, Under -106)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -119, Under -115)
I'm going to hold my breath and take the Over on Pickett's passing touchdowns. He's never thrown two in a game before and only has three touchdown passes in seven games played. Still, that +196 juice is attractive. I'll take the Over on passing yards, and I'll probably take Pickett to throw an interception as well.
Matt Ryan propsPassing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over +112, Under -154)
Passing yards: 232.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Passing attempts: OFF
Passing completions: OFF
Longest passing completion: 36.5 (Over -117, Under -117)
Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -127, Under -108)
I won't bet Ryan's touchdown number, and my lean is to the Over on passing yards. Ryan is averaging 271.4 passing yards per game this season, but he hasn't hit this 233 number since returning to the starting lineup in Week 10. I'll take the veteran to throw an interception as well.
Player propsGeorge Pickens receptions: Over 3.5 (-151). I don't
