Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots will try to reverse their fortunes against the Buffalo Bills when the two AFC East rivals collide on Thursday Night Football at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots have lost the last two meetings against the Bills and four of the last five. New England also has lost the last two games at Gillette. The last time these teams met, in last season's Wild Card round, Buffalo destroyed the Patriots, 47-17, scoring the most points ever against a team for which Belichick was either the head coach or defensive coordinator.
Kickoff is at 8:15 p.m. ET. Buffalo is a four-point favorite in the latest Patriots vs. Bills odds from Caesars Sportsbook while the over/under for total points scored is 44. Before you make any Bills vs. Patriots picks, be sure to check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's resident Patriots expert and data scientist, Stephen Oh.
The renowned co-founder of Accuscore, Oh simulates each game 10,000 times using the SportsLine projection model. Last season, he went 97-81-1 on his NFL picks. And he is on an amazing run in games involving the Patriots. Oh is 16-7 with his last 23 against-the-spread picks involving New England.
Now, Oh has zeroed in on Bills vs. Patriots and just locked in his picks and TNF predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see Oh's picks. Now, here are several NFL odds and betting lines and trends for Patriots vs. Bills:
Patriots vs. Bills spread: Buffalo -4 Patriots vs. Bills over/under: 44 points Patriots vs. Bills money line: Buffalo -215, New England +180 BUF: Bills rank second in the league in scoring offense (28.1 points per game) NE: Matthew Judon leads the NFL in sacks (13) Patriots vs. Bills picks: See picks hereFeatured Game | New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills
Buffalo has one of the best receivers in the league, Stefon Diggs. The former first-team All-Pro ranks third in both receiving yards per game (100.9) and receiving touchdowns (nine). On Thursday Night Football, he faces a New England defense that last week gave up nine catches for 139 yards and a touchdown to the Vikings' Justin Jefferson.
In addition, the Bills will square off against a Patriots offensive line that has been hampered by injuries. Already without Marcus Cannon (concussion), New England ruled out right tackle Isaiah Wynn on Wednesday with a foot injury. Then, on Thursday starting left tackle Trent Brown was added to the injury report with an illness and is listed as questionable. See which team to pick here.
Why the Patriots can coverNew England faces a quarterback who has struggled in the passing game recently. Bills signal-caller Josh Allen, who injured his elbow in Week 9 against the Jets, has had a passer rating of less than 81.0 in four of his last five games. Last week against Detroit, he averaged just 6.0 yards per attempt and earned a passer rating of 80.8.
That bodes well for a Patriots pass defense that has been excellent this season. The defense leads the league in completion percentage allowed (58.4) and ranks third in passer rating allowed (78.8). New England also ranks in the top 10 in yards per attempt allowed (6.72) and interceptions (12). See which team to pick here.
How to make Bills vs. Patriots picksNow, Oh has broken down Patriots vs. Bills from every angle. He is leaning Over on the point total, and he has discovered a crucial x-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back. He's only sharing what it is, and which side to back, at SportsLine.
So who wins Bills vs. Patriots on Thursday Night Football? And what critical factor
