A rematch of last season's AFC Championship Game between the Bengals and Chiefs is among the 13 NFL Week 13 matchups Sunday. It could be among the most enticing for NFL props bettors, as well. Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes and Cincinnati counterpart Joe Burrow are both in the top three in the league in passing yards, along with Buffalo's Josh Allen. Both defenses are middle of the pack against the pass, so which quarterback should you back? The totals are set high on both players, with Caesars Sportsbook listing the over/under for passing yards for Mahomes at 308.5 and Burrow's at 297.5. Both are favored to go under 2.5 touchdown passes (Mahomes -160, Burrow -224).
Mahomes is averaging 326 yards per game, while Burrow is at 287. Does that make it wise to back Mahomes and fade Burrow? There are many other factors to consider, and if you find that X-factor, you can cash in on NFL props. The Chiefs vs. Bengals matchup is set to kick off Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET. Before locking in your 2022 NFL Week 13 prop bets, make sure you check out the top NFL picks and predictions from NFL props expert Alex Selesnick.
Selesnick (aka PropStarz) specializes in NFL, MLB and NBA prop betting, where he implements a combination of research, statistical analysis and mathematical modeling.
The expert crushed his picks again in Week 12, going 4-0 on predictions that included Over 65.5 Rushing Yards on Miles Sanders of the Eagles. That was despite the running back totaling 25 carries over the previous two games. Sanders got 21 carries against Green Bay on Sunday night and more than doubled his expected rushing total with 143 yards. The perfect week makes PropStarz an astonishing 31-16 on NFL prop picks in this column through the first 12 weeks.
The props guru is 85-52 (+21.20 units) overall on all SportsLine NFL prop picks this season. He also went 130-89 (+26.69 units) on MLB prop plays during the 2022 regular season and is up nearly 235 units on NBA props and futures plays over the past two-plus seasons.
Now, after poring over the hundreds of available Week 13 NFL prop bets, PropStarz has found the picks he loves. You can only see them here.
Top 2022 Week 13 NFL prop picksOne of PropStarz's top NFL props for Week 13: Minnesota receiver Justin Jefferson Over 82.5 Receiving Yards (-120). He is on this play even though the Jets have one of the NFL's best secondaries, because he says "there is no player I trust more than Jefferson." The third-year pro is averaging 112 receiving yards per game and 10.6 per target. He comes off a nine-catch, 139-yard performance against another strong defense in a 33-26 victory against the Patriots.
Jefferson has 277 catches for 4,248 yards and 22 touchdowns in his two-plus seasons. The Jets are the eighth-best pass defense in the league, and cornerback Sauce Gardner is the favorite for Defensive Rookie of the Year. PropStarz believes Jefferson is just too good. The expert says he is an "auto play anytime we find his receiving line under 90 yards, regardless of opponent." You can see all of PropStarz's Week 13 NFL prop picks here.
How to make 2022 NFL Week 13 prop bets and predictionsPropStarz has locked in three other confident Week 13 NFL prop picks, including a running back who should get plenty of work against a bad defense. He also has a longshot lean on a struggling running back he expects to break out for a payout of almost 20-1. You can only see these picks over at SportsLine.
What are the best 2022 Week 13 NFL prop bets you can make? Which running back could bounce
