After a few weeks of jam-packed football, the NFL is serving up a rather small slate in Week 14. A total of six teams are on the bye, which leaves us 13 games to sink our teeth into. While it may be smaller than we've grown accustomed to, it does pack quite the punch with a number of interesting head-to-heads, including seven divisional matchups.
We also have Tom Brady -- fresh off a last-second win over the Saints on Monday -- facing his boyhood team in the 49ers in his hometown, which will certainly be appointment viewing. That game doesn't fall within my five locks of the week -- which is knocking on the door of .500 on the year -- but I'll be highlighting four divisional matchups and a game that may feature the highest spread we'll see all year.
2022 recordRegular season
Locks of the Week ATS: 30-31-4
ATS: 87-101-7
ML: 121-74
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
Featured Game | Los Angeles Rams vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Don't look now but the Raiders are making a playoff push in the AFC. They've won three straight and are just two games back of the final playoff spot. More importantly for the purpose of our conversation here, Las Vegas is 3-0 ATS over this win streak and the pass rush has really started to come on strong. Since Week 11, Josh McDaniels' club has totaled 11 sacks and has a pressure percentage of 39%. To put that in better context, Vegas had 10 sacks from Week 1 to Week 10. Part of the reason for the uptick is Chandler Jones getting home and has 20 pressures over the winning streak. Now, this Raiders front will go against a Rams offensive line that is allowing a 41% pressure rate since Week 11, which ranks 28th in the NFL. That, along with John Wolford sitting under center for L.A. doesn't instill much confidence that they'll be able to keep pace with a Raiders offense that is averaging nearly 30 points a game over this winning streak.
Projected score: Raiders 30, Rams 20
The pick: Raiders -6
Featured Game | New York Giants vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia looks like the clear favorite in the NFC and spurned us last week taking the points with the Titans. That said, we're not going to let that loss carry over into our decision-making here and we're once again fading the Eagles against the number. Despite only having one loss on the year, Jalen Hurts and Co. have been a downright bad bet on the road, owning a 1-4 ATS record away from Lincoln Financial Field. Meanwhile, New York has been among the top plays on a week-to-week basis and is tied with the Bengals for a league-best 9-3 ATS record. Even further, the Giants are 3-0 ATS as a home dog this year.
Projected score: Eagles 24, Giants 23
The pick: Giants +7
Featured Game | Cincinnati Bengals vs. Cleveland Browns
After an abysmal outing in his Browns debut last week, I do expect Deshaun Watson to play a bit better, which is partially why I like the Over in this matchup. Outside of that, this has the makings of a Cincinnati demolition. The Bengals are getting hot at precisely the right time and are tied with the Giants for the best ATS record in the league, which includes a 4-1 ATS record at home. Joe Burrow is 0-4 against the Browns in his career, which is a mark he'll look to improve upon on Sunday. Since Week 3, Burrow has completed 70% of his passes and has an NFL-best 111.4 passer rating. With this line sitting below the touchdown threshold, it's an easy call to lay the points with a red-hot Burrow.
Projected score: Bengals 33, Browns 20
The pick: Bengals -6
Featured Game | Tennessee Titans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Tennessee got schooled by A.J. Brown and the Eagles last week and will be looking to right the ship against a Jaguars defense that just allowed Detroit to drop 40 on them. Music City hasn't been kind to the Jaguars, who haven't won in Nashville since 2013. Since Ryan Tannehill has become the starter, the Titans are 5-0 and have won four of those five games by 18 or more points. Tannehill also has a 125.3 passer rating over that stretch with zero interceptions and 12 touchdowns. In other words, they dominate this matchup. On top of that, I do think there will be some urgency by this Tennessee team following the surprise firing of Jon Robinson on Tuesday. With new evaluators either ascending or coming into the building, each player may now be playing for their jobs, which is the type of motivation that could turn this game ugly and fast.
Projected score: Titans 27, Jaguars 14
The pick: Titans -3.5
Featured Game | Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans
By every measure, the Cowboys are the better football team. On principle, however, you can't lay 17 points in this spot. Houston could easily backdoor this game if Dallas gets up early and decides to rein in their stars at some point in the second half to reduce the risk of injury. That nearly happened just a few weeks ago with this Texans team when they hosted the Dolphins, who put up 30 in the first half and rested the starters for most of the second. There, they put up 15 points against scrubs and came within a point of covering the 14-point spread. With this sitting at 17, you take the points and hope for an avalanche of scoring by Dallas early that keeps the backdoor open late.
Projected score: Cowboys 30, Texans 14
The pick: Texans +17
Vikings at Lions
Projected score: Lions 30, Vikings 27
The pick: Lions -2.5
Jets at Bills
Projected score: Bills 28, Jets 21
The pick: Jets +9.5
Ravens at Steelers
Projected score: Ravens 23, Steelers 20
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