Welcome to the Friday edition of the Pick Six newsletter!
I'd like to start things off here with a moment of silence for the Raiders. I thought their season hit rock bottom back in Week 10 when they lost to a guy (Jeff Saturday) who got hired six days before coaching against them, but then they totally outdid themselves on Thursday night by losing to a guy (Baker Mayfield) who got signed less than 48 hours before facing them.
Mayfield flew to Los Angeles on Tuesday, practiced with the team on Wednesday and then played against the Raiders on Thursday. If he had been playing against any other team, the Rams probably lose, but the Raiders have perfected the art of losing to people off the street.
We'll be recapping last night's game in today's newsletter, plus, we'll be making some picks and bold predictions for Week 14.
As always, here's your weekly reminder to tell all your friends to sign up for the Pick Six newsletter. To get your friends to sign up, all you have to do is click here and then share this link with them. Alright, let's get to the rundown.
1. Today's show: Baker Mayfield leads Rams to stunning win over RaidersThe Rams looked to be left for dead on Thursday night, but then Baker Mayfield brought them back to life by leading Los Angeles to two touchdowns in the final three and a half minutes to lead Los Angeles to a wild 17-16 win over the Raiders. The only thing wilder than the game was the podcast that Will Brinson, Ryan Wilson and I recorded afterward. And in news that probably won't surprise you, we spent most of the podcast talking about Mayfield.
Here are three key things from the game that we covered during the pod:
Baker Mayfield leads Rams to a shocking win. The Rams pulled off what might go down as the most surprising victory of the NFL season on Thursday night and that's mostly because they won the game with a QB who wasn't even on their roster 48 hours before kickoff. In a game he didn't even start -- he didn't enter the game until the Rams' second possession -- Mayfield stunned everyone with an improbable comeback. With the Rams trailing 16-3 late in the fourth quarter, Mayfield led a 75-yard TD drive followed by a 98-yard game-winning TD drive. On the two drives combined, Mayfield went 15 of 18 for 141 yards, plus he threw the game-winning TD, which was a 23-yard score to Van Jefferson with just 10 seconds left (You can see the TD here). Before the final two drives, Mayfield was just 7 of 17 in the game.
Raiders experience a total meltdown. As good as Mayfield was, the Rams don't win this game without some serious help from the Raiders, who experienced a total meltdown. The Raiders had this game in hand, but then they shot themselves in the foot with two monstrous penalties late in the fourth quarter. The first one was a defensive offside by Clelin Ferrell on a fourth-and-3 play where the Rams were lined up to punt with 11:03 left to play (You can see Ferrell's gaffe here). After getting a fresh set of downs from Ferrell's penalty, the Rams eventually scored a touchdown on the drive to cut the lead to 16-10. The Raiders were also hit with another dumb penalty when Jerry Tillery got flagged for unsportsmanlike conduct after he knocked the ball out of Mayfield's hands following a sack with 90 seconds left in the game. If Tillery doesn't do that, the Rams would have had second-and-19 from their own 13 with the clock running, but instead, the clock stopped due to the penalty and the Rams got a free 15 yards, which helped propel their game-winning drive (You can see Tillery's penalty here).
Carr crash. The fact that everyone is talking about Mayfield might be a good thing for Derek Carr, because it could end up overshadowing just how bad he was in this game. Carr completed just 11-of-20 passes for 137 yards, plus he threw two interceptions. His first pick came in the end zone just before halftime, and it was big because the Raiders would have almost certainly gotten at least a field goal if he doesn't throw it (You can see the play here). That interception must have broken Carr, because he was even worse in the second half. During the game's final two quarters, he went 2 of 7 for 11 yards while registering a 0.0 QB RATING.
Here are a view notes on the historic comeback:
Going into Thursday, NFL teams were 70-2 on the season when leading by 13 points or more in the final five minutes, but that record is now 70-3 after the Raiders' loss. The Raiders were on top 16-3 with 3:20 left to play, but couldn't hold the lead. The Raiders led 13-3 at the half, which means they've now blown FOUR double-digit halftime leads on the season, which makes them the first team since at least 1930 to do that. At one point in the game, the Raiders led 16-3, which means they blew a 13-point lead. This loss marks the fourth time this season that the Raiders have blown a 13-point lead, which makes them just the fourth team in NFL history to blow that big of a lead in four different games in the same season (The other three teams are the 1982 Rams, the 1996 Jets and the 1998 Colts).To make this victory happen, Mayfield had to drive the Rams 98 yards for the game-winning touchdown, which is notable, because the scoring drive was the LONGEST touchdown drive of Mayfield's career. That's right, Mayfield saved the longest TD drive of his career for the fourth quarter of a comeback win while playing for a team that he just joined two days before the game was played. It was also the longest go-ahead TD drive that began in the final two minutes over the last 45 YEARS, according to Elias Sports.
Of all the ugly losses by the Raiders this season, this one was the ugliest.
Raiders' playoff chances go down the toilet. If the Raiders had won this game, it felt like they would have had a legitimate shot at sneaking into the postseason, but now, it feels like their playoff hopes are dead. At 5-8, the best the Raiders can do is 9-8 and that likely won't be enough to get them into the playoffs. The Jets are currently the seventh seed in the AFC and if they go just 3-2 down the stretch, that would get them to 10 wins, and if it takes 10 wins to reach the playoffs in the AFC, then it will be impossible for the Raiders to get in. As for the Rams, they're still alive for a playoff berth at 4-9 and if you want to know how they can get in, we covered that here.We talked about those three things, plus everything else you could possibly want to know about Thursday's game. If you want to listen to the rest of our recap, be sure to click here. You can " target="_blank"also watch today's episode on YouTube by clicking here.
2. Today's show Part II: Best bets for Week 14The best part about Friday -- besides the fact that it's Friday -- is that you get two episodes of the podcast in your feed. After recording the Thursday night postgame podcast with Wilson and myself, Brinson kicked us to the curb so that he could record his weekly picks show with Pete Prisco and R.J. White.
Those three guys spent nearly 60 minutes going over their best bets for every single game being played in Week 14, and we're going to cover three of those bets from each guy below. You actually might want to listen to them this week because they've combined to go 31-21-2 over the past six weeks (and that includes going an ugly 3-6 in Week 13.)
Pete Prisco (1-2 last week in picks covered here, 23-15-1 on the season)
Chargers (+3) to cover against the Dolphins Giants (+7) to cover against the Eagles Vikings at Lions OVER 51 pointsR.J. White (1-2 last week in picks covered here, 23-14-2 on the season)
Dolphins (-3) to cover against the Chargers Panthers (+3.5) to cover against the Seahawks Cardinals (+1.5) to cover against the PatriotsWill Brinson (1-2 last week in picks covered here, 18-20-1 on the season)
Bengals (-6) to cover against the Browns Browns at Bengals OVER 46.5 points Texans at Cowboys UNDER 45.5 pointsTo hear what the rest of the best bets are for Week 14 -- and there are quite a few -- you " target="_blank"can check out the episode on YouTube by clicking here.
3. Week 14 picks: Bengals end losing streak to Browns, Buccaneers upset 49ersThis is the final newsletter of the week, which means we will be cramming as many picks as humanly possible into this space.
With that in mind, we've got four more Week 14 picks coming your way, and those will be coming from NFL senior writer Pete Prisco, along with Jordan Dajani, Tyler Sullivan and myself.
Here's how things are going to work: I'm going to give you one pick from each guy and then direct you to the rest of their picks. That way, if you like their pick, you'll be able to read the rest of them, but if they pick against your favorite team, you can ignore the rest of their picks and move on. Every pick that was featured here last week ended up being correct, so let's see if we can make it two weeks in row.
Pete Prisco -- Eagles 27-24 over Giants (+7) From Prisco: "This is a big game for the Giants in the playoff race and they need this game more than the Eagles, but the Eagles are flying high on offense. It will be a big challenge for the Giants, but I think they hang around in this one." For the rest of Prisco's Week 14 picks, be sure to click here. Tyler Sullivan -- Bengals (-5.5) 33-20 over Browns. From Sullivan: "The Bengals are getting hot at precisely the right time and are tied with the Giants for the best ATS record in the league. Joe Burrow is 0-4 against the Browns in his career, which is a mark he'll look to improve upon on Sunday. Since Week 3, Burrow has completed 70% of his passes and has an NFL-best 111.4 passer rating. With this line sitting below the touchdown threshold, it's an easy call to lay the points with a red-hot Burrow." For the rest of Sullivan's Week 14 picks, be sure to click here. Jordan Dajani -- Vikings (+2.5) 28-25 over Lions. From Dajani: "I feel like I'm in the minority in believing the Lions still aren't that incredible. I watched them squeak by the Bears, trounce the Giants, give the Bills a game on Thanksgiving and then blow out the Jaguars. I agree, Detroit has a solid offense. But do the Lions deserve to be favorites against one of the two double-digit win teams in the NFL?" For the rest of Dajani's Week 14 best bets, be sure to click here. John Breech -- Buccaneers (+3.5) 23-20 over 49ers. Tom Brady has never lost to a quarterback who's making his first career start, and Brock Purdy is making his first career start. The Buccaneers haven't looked great this season, but Brady is from the Bay Area and I think he's going to come through with a huge performance in what could be his final trip to the bay. For the rest of my Week 14 picks, be sure to click here. 4. Playoff scenarios: Eagles, Vikings and Chiefs clinch playoff spot in Week 14With the NFL headed into Week 14, we still haven't seen a SINGLE TEAM clinch a playoff berth this year, but that could finally change in a big way on Sunday.
For Week 14, we have three teams that could clinch a playoff berth, with two of those coming in the NFC and one coming in the AFC.
Here are the three teams that could clinch and what they need to do to clinch:
EAGLES
VIKINGS
CHIEFS
To check out the full explanation for every playoff scenario, be sure to click here.
5. Bold predictions for Week 14: Cowboys sack the Texans 10 timesThere's nothing we love here more than making bold predictions, so we asked Jared Dubin to come up with some for Week 14.
With that in mind, let's take a look at his predictions:
Bills get revenge on Jets. "Back in Week 9, the Bills had their worst offensive performance of the year, totaling a season-low 317 yards, a season-low 19 first downs, and a season-low 17 points in a loss to New York. That's not going to happen again. The Bills are the better team, and even if the Jets defense is able to hold Allen largely in check, they're still coming away with a victory here." Cowboys hit double-digit sacks against Texans. "Dallas leads the NFL in sacks behind Dan Quinn's ferocious pass rush, and the Texans have yielded a sack on 7.5% of their dropbacks so far this season, which is a recipe for disaster if you're Houston. The season-high for sacks by any NFL team in a game this year is nine and the Cowboys are going to top that this week. If they do that, they'd become the first team since 2019 (and only 57th team in the Super Bowl era) to record double-digit sacks in a game." 49ers beat Buccaneers in Brock Purdy's first start. "The Buccaneers may have secured a comeback win on Monday night against the Saints, but they'll have no such luck against the 49ers. No, San Francisco will not have its starting quarterback. Or even its backup quarterback -- both Trey Lance and Jimmy Garoppolo are no longer able to take the field -- but they do have their defense. The Niners defense seems highly likely to hold this Bucs offense in check. It just shut down one of the league's best units last week; and the Bucs offense is no longer one of the league's best units. The 49ers defensive line has an advantageous matchup up front, and the coverage unit is well-equipped to take away the deep passes Tampa's offense is built around."For a full look at Dubin's bold predictions, be sure to click here.
6. Rapid-fire roundup: Congress releases report on CommandersIt's been a busy 24 hours in the NFL, and since it's nearly impossible to keep track of everything that happened, I went ahead and put together a roundup for you.
House committee report rips Commanders. The House Committee released its long-awaited report on the Commanders and here's what it found: The team most likely released the Jon Gruden emails, Dan Snyder led a toxic culture while covering up decades of sexual misconduct and he likely obstructed witnesses who wanted to testify in these cases. Nothing about this report reflects well on the Commanders. For full details on the report, be sure to click here. Rams offensive coordinator leaving after
