The Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers will wrap up Sunday's Week 14 action when these AFC contenders square off at SoFi Stadium in prime time.
Miami comes into this matchup at 8-4 after seeing its five-game winning streak snapped by the 49ers last week. Meanwhile, L.A. is coming off a Week 13 loss to the Raiders where it was outscored by 10 in the second half to fall to 6-6. The Chargers are currently on the outside looking in of the AFC playoff picture, but a win against a conference foe would do wonders for their chances going forward.
Here, we'll specifically be looking at the different betting angles that this game has to offer. Along with the spread and total, we'll also take a look at several player props and hand in our picks for how we see this showdown unfolding.
All NFL odds via Caesars Sportsbook.
How to watchDate: Sunday, Dec. 11 | Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
TV: NBC | Stream: fuboTV (try for free)
Follow: CBS Sports App
Odds: Dolphins -3, O/U 53.5
Featured Game | Los Angeles Chargers vs. Miami Dolphins
The lookahead on this matchup had the Dolphins as a slim 1-point favorite. However, that saw noticeable movement following Week 13 and this spread leaped up to the full field goal advantage for Miami at -3 by Monday morning and has largely held since. There was a brief moment on Thursday where it bumped to Dolphins -3.5 at plus money, but it has since settled back down at Dolphins -3.
The pick: Dolphins -3. It's easy to say that Miami laid an egg against Brock Prudy last week, but the 49ers defense is no joke and is arguably the best unit in the NFL. With that in mind, it's not totally surprising that the Dolphins offense struggled to find its footing. That said, Tua Tagovailoa and company should find much easier sledding in this matchup against the Chargers. L.A.'s defense is averaging 6.1 yards per play allowed this season, which ranks 31st in the league. Meanwhile, the Dolphins' 6.3 yards per play on offense ranks second. Specifically with Tagovailoa, he owns an NFL-best 10.8 yards per attempt between the numbers coming into Week 14, which plays right into a weakness of the Chargers' defensive unit. They rank 31st in the league in yards per attempt between the numbers. Miami's offense should get back on track in this game, which should result in them covering in this spot.
Key trend: Chargers are 2-3 ATS at home this season.
Over/Under totalAs you may imagine, points are expected to come in bunches in this game. This total opened at 51.5 and has since moved up a full point to 52.5. Most of that movement came on Thursday night as it bumped up the full point after jockeying around it at various points during the week.
The pick: Over 52.5. Both offenses have the capability of exploding, thanks to their quarterbacks. Specifically with Miami, we already talked about how Tagovailoa can exploit this Chargers secondary, and L.A. is giving up the second-most points per game over the last two seasons (26.5). The Over has also hit in four of the Dolphins' last five games. It's also worth pointing out that the team remained in California after the loss to San Francisco last week, so it won't be doing any cross-country travel for the second straight week, which is a plus. As for the Chargers, it's not like they will be facing an all-time defense, either, as the Dolphins are allowing 24.1 points per game entering this contest, which ranks in the bottom third of the league.
Key trend: Over is 7-2 in the Chargers' last nine home games.
Tua Tagovailoa props Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -199, Under +143) Passing yards: 281.5 (Over -117, Under -117) Rushing yards: 3.5 (Over -123, Under -111) Passing attempts: 35.5 (Over -109, Under -125) Completions: 22.5 (Over -123, Under -111) Longest pass completion: 40.5 (Over -115, Under -119) Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -137, Under +100)Tagovailoa has gone over this passing yards prop in his last five games and is now facing a depleted Chargers secondary that matches up favorably to his skill set. He should be in a position to go over that passing yard prop again as well as throw for multiple touchdowns. L.A. is allowing 2.2 passing touchdowns per game at home this season. It's also worth pointing out that Tagovailoa has started to utilize his legs a bit more over the last two games and is averaging 23 rushing yards per game over that stretch. It's admittedly a small sample size, but intriguing given that his rushing yards prop currently sits at just 3.5 yards.
Passing touchdowns: 1.5 (Over -166, Under +120) Passing yards: 288.5 (Over -117, Under -117) Rushing yards: 15.5 (Over -113, Under -121) Longest pass completion: 37.5 (Over -115, Under -119) Interceptions: 0.5 (Over -103, Under -133)Herbert is facing a Dolphins defense that ranks 28th in the NFL in opponent red zone touchdown percentage, so he should have plenty of opportunities to throw for multiple scores in this game. For a little bit better value, we could look to Herbert's rushing prop at 15.5. He's gone over that number in four of his last six games.
Player props to considerJeff Wilson Jr. total rushing yards: Over 40.5 (-131). I think you see a nice blend of both Wilson and Raheem Mostert in this game, especially with the Chargers allowing 5.4 yards per rush this season. If that average holds, it would be the worst by any team in a single season in NFL history, so to call this a tasty matchup would be an understatement. Wilson saw minimal action last week against a tough 49ers defense, but I expect him to hover around double-digit carries this week, which should be enough for him to fly over this number.
Austin Ekeler total receiving yards: Over 44.5 (-119). Ekeler
