NFL playoff races are coming down to the final weeks, with a final wild card spot up for grabs in both conferences and some division titles still to be determined. There were also plenty of teams that were eliminated from the playoffs in Week 17, leaving those franchises questioning their future and the direction they should go this offseason.
Several teams are in a free fall as the season comes to a close, and one of them is still in the wild card playoff race (Miami Dolphins). Others (Washington Commanders and New York Jets) weren't as fortunate. Then there are the Philadelphia Eagles, who still haven't clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
With the playoffs a week away, here are some takeaways from Sunday's slate of games. Which ones are overreactions and which ones are reality? We're glad you asked.
The Packers will be first team to start 4-8 and earn a wild card spotOverreaction or reality: Overreaction
Green Bay does control its own destiny for the last playoff spot in the conference, needing to beat the Detroit Lions to lock up the seventh and final playoff spot in the NFC.
But the Lions won't be an easy out, even on the road. Detroit beat Green Bay earlier in the year, as the Packers only scored nine points in trying to figure out the identity of their offense. The Lions got their winning run started with a Week 9 win over Green Bay, winning seven of its last nine games to get back to .500. They'll play with house money in what has been a surprising season.
Let's not give the Packers the final playoff spot yet, though their postseason path is finally clear after winning four in a row.
The Eagles are going to blow the NFC East title and No. 1 seedOverreaction or reality: Overreaction
If the Eagles lost their last two games with Jalen Hurts at quarterback, there would be serious concern in Philadelphia. Instead, it was Gardner Minshew who threw an interception return for a touchdown to seal the Eagles' fate, as Philadelphia put up season lows in points (10) and yards (313) to the New Orleans Saints.
This team just isn't the same without Hurts, who is expected back for the must-win game against the New York Giants next week -- with home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs on the line. The Giants may be resting their starters. Expect Hurts and the Eagles to get back on track.
The Dolphins will make the playoffsOverreaction or reality: Reality
How can a team that's lost five in a row still have a shot at the playoffs? The Dolphins have the best scenario of the AFC teams playing for that last wild card spot, needing a win over the Jets (who have also lost five in a row) and a Patriots loss to the Bills to clinch a playoff spot.
A Bills win over the Bengals Monday makes this scenario plausible, as the Patriots would face Buffalo with a playoff spot on the line. The Bills will still be playing for the No. 1 seed, so there's no reason to rest Josh Allen and company. Pittsburgh needs both New England and Miami to lose -- along with a win over Cleveland -- and it's hard to fathom all of that happening.
If Tua Tagovailoa plays in Week 18, Miami gets that last playoff spot.
Ron Rivera won't be back as Commanders head coachOverreaction or reality: Reality
Rivera actually relied on Carson Wentz to keep his team's playoff hopes alive in a must-win game for Washington. All Wentz did was go 16 of 28 for 143 yards and three interceptions in a 24-10 loss to the Cleveland Browns. The Commanders were later eliminated from the playoffs thanks to the Packers beating the Minnesota Vikings.
That's twice in three seasons Rivera has missed the playoffs in Washington, and the year he did make it, the Commanders won the NFC East with a 7-9 record. The Commanders have lost three in a row and haven't won a game in five weeks (including their bye week). They had an opportunity to control their playoff fate with a win over the Giants in Week 15, fell short, and they haven't won since.
Rivera didn't even realize Washington could be eliminated from the postseason with a loss Sunday and a Packers win. This collapse may be enough for Washington to move on.
Mike Tomlin will extend his streak without a losing recordOverreaction or reality: Reality
This may be Tomlin's best coaching job yet, especially if the Steelers can find a way to make the playoffs with a rookie quarterback and a team that started 2-6. Whether the Steelers make the playoffs or not, 9-8 is an incredible accomplishment with this team -- and all the Steelers need is a win over the Browns in Week 18 to accomplish that.
That would be 16 straight seasons to start a career without a losing record for Tomlin, extending his NFL record. That the Steelers even having a chance to be 9-8 shows how well Tomlin coaches his team.
Overreaction or reality: Reality
Jalen Hurts missing the last two games and the Eagles going 0-2 in his absence should have helped his case in the MVP race, in one sense, but Mahomes continuing to play outstanding football improved his MVP standing. Mahomes has had another 5,000-yard and 40 touchdown season -- accomplishing it without Tyreek Hill on the roster.
Mahomes joined Tom Brady and Drew Brees as the only quarterbacks with multiple 5,000-plus passing yard seasons in NFL
