For the fifth consecutive season, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the AFC Championship Game when they welcome the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday in a rematch of last year's title game. The AFC West champion Chiefs are in familiar territory since the road to the Super Bowl for the AFC participant has gone through Arrowhead Stadium the past four seasons. They split those matchups, and beat the Buffalo Bills 38-24 two seasons ago. But the AFC North champion Bengals have gotten the best of this rivalry of late, with three consecutive victories that include a 27-24 overtime win against Kansas City in last year's AFC Championship Game.
Kickoff is set for 6:30 p.m. ET from Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs are one-point favorites in the latest Chiefs vs. Bengals odds from Caesars Sportsbook and the over/under for total points scored is 47.5. Before locking in any Bengals vs. Chiefs picks, make sure you check out the NFL predictions and betting advice from SportsLine senior analyst Larry Hartstein.
A former lead writer for Covers and The Linemakers, Hartstein combines a vast network of Vegas sources with an analytical approach he honed while working for Pro Football Focus. He entered the 2022 NFL season 427-344 all-time on NFL side picks (plus $3,764 for $100 players), including 394-330 against the spread. Hartstein went 68-50 ATS and 8-3 on money-line plays last season for a profit of $1,552.
What's more, Hartstein also is 29-16 on his last 45 against-the-spread picks involving the Bengals or Chiefs, meaning he's uniquely qualified to make this pick. Anyone who has consistently followed him has seen massive returns.
Now, Hartstein has zeroed in on Bengals vs. Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game 2023 from every angle and revealed his NFL expert picks and predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are several NFL odds and betting lines for Bengals vs. Chiefs:
Bengals vs. Chiefs point spread: Chiefs -1 Bengals vs. Chiefs over/under: 47.5 points Bengals vs. Chiefs money line: Bengals +100, Chiefs -120 CIN: Bengals are 5-1-1 against the spread in their past seven postseason games KC: The home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this rivalry Bengals vs. Chiefs picks: See picks hereFeatured Game | Kansas City Chiefs vs. Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals made an effort to upgrade their offensive line in the offseason after the unit allowed an NFL-worst 3.5 sacks per game last season and was generally regarded as the club's lone glaring weakness. The upgrades included signing former Cowboys standout tackle La'el Collins to a three-year contract and the drafting of guard Cordell Volson, who started all 16 games and earned first team all-rookie honors for his efforts.
But the offensive line again became a major concern in the playoffs when three starters, including Collins, went down because of injuries. Still, the retooled group allowed just one sack and three total hits of Burrow in the win over Buffalo. It also led the way for running back Joe Mixon to rush for 105 yards on 20 carries, many of which came in the fourth quarter for first downs and kept Buffalo's offense off the field. See which team to pick here.
Why the Chiefs can coverThe Chiefs have been the Super Bowl betting favorite for much of the season and can't be overlooked at home in a championship setting despite some adversity. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes suffered an ankle injury last weekend against Jacksonville, and it's unclear how severely the ailment will limit him in the AFC Championship Game. Mahomes exited the game for most of the second quarter, but returned for the second half and finished 22 of 30 passing for 195 yards with two touchdowns against zero interceptions. In his absence, veteran backup Chad Henne led a touchdown drive that included a one-yard scoring pass to tight end Travis Kelce.
The Chiefs also showed more reliance on their rushing game, led by 95 yards on 12 carries from rookie seventh-round draft pick Isiah Pacheco. The Kansas City defense allowed 349 yards to Jacksonville, but forced two turnovers and made numerous key fourth-quarter stops to help seal the victory. See which team to pick here.
How to make Bengals vs. Chiefs picksNow, Hartstein has broken down Bengals vs. Chiefs from every angle. We can tell you that he's leaning Under the point total, but his much stronger play is on the spread. He's found a critical X-factor that makes one side of the spread a must-back on Sunday. You can only see his 2023 AFC Championship game pick and analysis at SportsLine.
