Good luck finding an NFL fanbase down on their favorite team right now. When I predicted records for every single NFL team, anything other than 17-0 for literally any franchise was met with nothing short of scorn and derision. The Brinson Model ™️ aims to please!
A three-toed sloth could count the number of winning seasons the Browns have had since returning to Cleveland in 1999 ... on one foot. Yet Browns fans are apoplectic if you suggest 7-10 could be on the table.
Last year around this time, my good pal Jason La Canfora identified five teams he believed were in the worst shape and in for the roughest ride in 2022. He pretty much nailed it: Chicago and Houston had the top two overall picks in the draft, while Carolina and Atlanta were "involved" in an ugly NFC South race before netting top-10 selections (Carolina would trade up to No. 1 overall) and Washington, well, they commandeered their way to another impressive Snyder-esque season.
Now it's my turn to find the five teams set up for the roughest ride in 2023. This year was much, MUCH more difficult: I'm personally high on what the Falcons are doing and three of JLC's five teams from last year -- Carolina, Houston and Indy -- ended up drafting a quarterback with a top-five pick. Unless you truly detest a prospect's, uh, prospects, you have to feel optimistic about decent rosters adding young quarterback talent at the top of the draft.
Ultimately this list will probably end up being a mix of teams who will struggle in 2023 as well as teams who have questions for the long haul about the overall franchise direction. The Washington Commanders are an auto add to this list if Dan Snyder still owns the team in Week 1, but if he actually sells I can't possibly have them pointing in the wrong direction.
1. Arizona CardinalsNot going to lie and suggest I'm starting alphabetically here: the Cardinals profile as by far the worst team in football for 2023 and it's not particularly close. Arizona has a first-year GM and a first-year head coach, both of whom have some interesting missteps early on. Monti Ossenfort self-reported tampering charges with Jonathan Gannon leading to the hiring process, which essentially cost his team a top-100 pick. Gannon declined to meet with the media following Arizona's first draft day and also told Arizona reporters everyone wanted him fired because the Eagles didn't blitz enough. It may have been a lie. For a team that could seriously struggle to compete this year, it's not an ideal way to start things off with the press and fans.
Quarterback could be a mitigating factor here but Kyler Murray is recovering from a torn ACL suffered late in the season. It would be a pretty massive surprise if he was ready to roll by Week 1. And there's the added question of whether the Cardinals want him to be ready. Arizona has its own first-round pick and Houston's in 2024 -- factor in a new regime and Caleb Williams/Drake Maye are absolutely in play for the desert birds.
Oh and there's the whole pesky matter of former personnel VP Terry McDonough accusing owner Michael Bidwell of "gross misconduct, which includes cheating, discrimination and harassment.
Arizona owns its own tier in these rankings right now.
2. Tampa Bay BuccaneersThe Bucs placement on here isn't an indictment of the long-term health of the organization so much as a snapshot of where Tampa stands right now. The Bucs won a Super Bowl in 2020 after the bold acquisition of Tom Brady -- not to mention the rest of the roster being built up nicely by GM Jason Licht -- and made the playoffs the last two years, even amid a coaching change from Bruce Arians to Todd Bowles.
But with Brady retiring this offseason, the bill came due for Tampa's immediate and possibly long-term future. Baker Mayfield is in town on a one-year deal and the warmth of Bowles seat isn't being talked about enough. Arians won the Super Bowl; a disastrous season for the long-time defensive coordinator could certainly result in Tampa changing head coaches next offseason (or before).
There is still a lot to like about this roster, particularly on the defensive side and you won't hear anyone complaining about Tampa's pass catchers either. But the offense wasn't the same without Arians and now without Brady pulling the trigger it's impossible not to be worried about how 2023 plays out for this team.
3. Tennessee TitansFully prepared to look like an IDIOT when Mike Vrabel wins his division and lands the No. 1 seed in the AFC a few months from now. But 2023 profiles as a possible rough ride for the Titans as they transition from Ryan Tannehill -- in the final year of his contract -- to Will Levis, who they drafted with a second-round pick this offseason. Levis' status doesn't guarantee him future franchise material (see: Malik Willis just last year for Tennessee) but he does feel like someone Vrabel is staking his future towards as opposed to now-ousted GM Jon Robinson.
The issue for Tennessee fans isn't so much the team will be "terrible" or one of the worst handful of teams in the league, but there's a fragility to how the Titans appear to be built. The offensive line isn't as good as it was when Derrick Henry was ripping off 2,000-yard seasons. Tannehill might very well play 17 games and play them well, but it's quite possible he ends up riding pine at some point in the season so Tennessee can see what they have in the rookie. Rough patches are to be expected if that's the case.
Offensively it's just hard to see the Titans scoring a ton of points on a weekly basis. Defensively they're better than people give them credit for. It's hard to win a ton of 16-13 games -- it's just the fragile nature of the football when you let the lines become that fine.
Henry is in the final year of his deal too. Maybe he and Tanny make a big push to break the bank, but the Titans -- as we've known them the last few years -- are changing their identity during the 2023 season, which could make things a little bumpy along the way.
4. New England PatriotsWHAT COULD GO WRONG?? The single greatest dynasty in the history of professional sports, as down in the dumps as it's been for the past 25 years with Bill Belichick's back sort of/maybe against the wall, so why wouldn't I pile on here expecting to never get burnt by the greatest coach in the history of football, professional or otherwise???
The Pats swapped out Matt Patricia and Joe Judge for Bill O'Brien, an extremely meaningful and obvious upgrade in terms of running the offense. I'm still not sold the offense will be above average, though. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Devante Parker and Tyquan Thornton aren't the 1927 Yankees of receiving corps. Rhamondre Stevenson can be an elite running back but things get thin after him on the depth chart. Mac Jones still has a lot to prove to a lot of people!
Defensively no one is doubting Belichick, especially when he stole Christian Gonzalez later in the first round. It wouldn't be surprising at all if the Pats looked a lot like the Titans. But that comes back to the fragility of things in the NFL when you want to run the ball and play defense in 2023. And it's magnified for a team like the Pats in a division like the AFC East, where Buffalo's on a three-year run of dominance, the Dolphins are a dangerous contender if their QB is on the field and the Jets just added Aaron Rodgers. I'm bullish on New England this year but it's very possible 2023 is a long season for Pats fans.
5. Las Vegas RaidersLet's take out everyone connected with the Patriots dynasty why don't we?!? It felt like the Raiders took one step forward and one step back all offseason. Adding Jimmy Garoppolo to replace Derek Carr was the perfect metaphor for this team: they made the ultimate lateral move, even if it might benefit the team in the long haul because of Jimmy's fit in Josh McDaniels' system.
I'm a big fan of both Jakobi Meyers (essentially a one-year deal) and Josh Jacobs (franchise tag) but expecting the latter to produce the same way he did last year is asking a lot, especially with the frustration of another single-year deal potentially lingering. Even if the offense explodes, the Raiders could easily be the fourth best attack in their own division.
Tyree Wilson is a very attractive
