sport news REVEALED: Opta supercomputer rates Manchester United's chances of making the ... trends now
They threw away 2-0 and 3-1 leads to draw 3-3 with Galatasaray on Wednesday night and their last-16 destiny is now out of their hands.
United will need to beat Bayern Munich at Old Trafford on matchday six on December 12 and hope the other game between Copenhagen and Galatasaray ends all-square.
That's reflected in Opta's latest calculations, which show a minuscule six per cent chance of United making it through.
Even worse, Erik ten Hag's side are given a 66.3 per cent probability of crashing out of Europe entirely by finishing bottom of the group.
Manchester United's Champions League chances hang by a thread after their 3-3 draw with Galatasaray on Wednesday - with their fate out of their own hands ahead of matchday six
Erik ten Hag's side are bottom of Group A and need favours from elsewhere to progress
United need to beat Bayern Munich at Old Trafford and hope that Copenhagen and Galatasaray draw to snatch second place and reach the last-16
Opta rate their prospects of finishing third and going into the Europa League at 27.6 per cent.
Copenhagen - currently second in Group A and ahead of Galatasaray on overall goal difference - have home advantage on December 12 and are given a 55.2 per cent chance of making the last-16, compared to the Turkish club's 38.7 per cent.
Goals by Alejandro Garnacho and Bruno