NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on -- it's a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports gambling, win totals have been out for a while now, but we can't really get crystallized and concrete numbers until the NFL schedule is released.
With the schedule out and every angle of the 2024 NFL season under full scrutiny, we can finally get down to the business of betting season-long win totals. I'll revisit these in August before the season begins but we'll try and find some value earlier in the offseason.
I'm using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use but you should absolutely shop around and get the best number, so let's break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here as they're released:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we dive in, a couple quick notes. One, we're picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, you should probably avoid actually betting on overs at this point because of how quickly injuries can flip the fortunes of NFL teams.
Let's get to it.
Baltimore RavensOver 11.5 (+125) / Under 11.5 (-145)
This is a massive total for a team that experienced a lot of turnover this offseason. Granted, Lamar Jackson and the skill-position guys are largely the same in their second year with Todd Monken, with one notable addition: Derrick Henry. That's a big boy add and if Henry is still his old self it could be a dynamic boost. But attrition on the offensive line is a worry, even if the Ravens now boast an entirely homegrown unit blocking up front. They're right about drafting and development often and if it's the case here, the offense won't skip a beat. But it's fair to be concerned. Defensively there's even more lost. Mike Macdonald is gone; Zach Orr has drawn rave reviews but it's asking a lot for a first-year DC to replace what Macdonald did before leaving to coach the Seahawks. Patrick Queen, Geno Stone and Jadeveon Clowney also left in free agency. They actually underperformed their point differential from last year and had a losing record in one-score games. I wouldn't bank on massive regression, not with this coaching staff and a two-time MVP. There are just too many question marks to take the over for the highest preseason win total in football in May.
Lean: Over 11.5 (+125)
Cincinnati BengalsOver 10.5 (-125) / Under 10.5 (+110)
Will Joe Burrow be healthy in 2024? It's probably not that simple but it sure feels that way. The Bengals still managed to win nine games last year despite Burrow starting the season with a calf injury and ending the year on the IR with a wrist injury. Add in his rookie year ACL tear and the random appendix issue before 2022 and there is viable concern about Burrow staying healthy for a full year. Vegas isn't as concerned, clearly, with a robust, double-digit, heavily-juiced over on the win total. It makes sense: Trent Brown and Amarius Mims added to the offensive line gives the Bengals some absurdly massive tackles. Zach Moss replacing Joe Mixon might be an upgrade. Tee Higgins is in the fold ... sort of ... he really needs to play. Geno Stone, Vonn Bell and Sheldon Rankins are all sneaky nice veteran upgrades on the defensive side of the ball. I'm worried about the loss of Brian Callahan to the Titans more than most, I think, especially what it means out of the gate for Cincy. But the Bengals get the Pats, Panthers and Commanders along with a trip to the Chiefs to start the season, so they should be OK in terms of starting hot. The Titans, Browns and Broncos on the back end of the schedule should have Cincy playoff hunting again this year. But, also again, I'd hold off on taking this over until we see more from Burrow this offseason.
Lean: Over 10.5 (-125)
Pittsburgh SteelersOver 8.5 (+125) / Under 8.5 (-150)
The Steelers still found their way above .500 under Mike Tomlin last year and even stumbled into the playoffs. But there were still underlying concerns and the organization canned OC Mike Canada and shipped former first-round pick Kenny Pickett to Philly while bringing in the combo of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields this offseason. It's a really fun combo in theory, but it's also hard to imagine how Wilson helps if Fields wins the job. Arthur Smith is the new offensive coordinator, so the upgrades on the offensive line and the Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren duo might be much more important than who's actually snapping the ball. Pittsburgh opens the season with the ultimate Revenge Game combo (at Atlanta, at Denver) for Smith and Wilson and those early games might point towards where their season heads in a very difficult division. Pittsburgh closes with the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs and Bengals; it's as brutal a stretch as you'll see in the NFL all season. Adding Patrick Queen and Payton Wilson turns this linebacking corps into a strength, but the defensive line (particularly Cam Heyward and T.J. Watt) will need to be healthy to chase another playoff berth. The juice on the under is absurd right now but I'd certainly lean that way.
Lean: Under 8.5 (-150)
Cleveland BrownsOver 8.5 (-130) / Under 8.5 (+110)
On the surface, everything in Cleveland comes down to Deshaun Watson. Can he actually perform at a Pro Bowl level for the first time since being traded to the Browns? I think it's more interesting to wonder how the run game works with offensive line guru Bill Callahan leaving for Tennessee and Nick Chubb coming off a brutal leg injury. Jerome Ford is capable, but if the run game takes a step back and Watson doesn't take a step forward, the offense might struggle to get going, even with Jerry Jeudy added to Amari Cooper and David Njoku. Defensively, Jim Schwartz's unit has the personnel to maintain its success from last year. But the Browns struggles defensively on the road are a red flag for consistency in 2024.
