Weather: Sudden stratospheric warming at the North Pole may trigger another ...

Sudden stratospheric warming event around the North Pole could trigger another 'Beast from the East', scientists warn British researchers studied stratospheric warming events from the last 60 years During these episodes, temperatures in the stratosphere can rise by 90°F in days This disturbance can travel downwards and cause cooling shifts in the jet stream The team worked out how to track the signals of the descending disturbances  Yesterday they said snow could fall in the UK in weeks — as it has this morning

By Ian Randall For Mailonline

Published: 11:44 GMT, 6 January 2021 | Updated: 11:44 GMT, 6 January 2021

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Another 'Beast from the East' as seen in 2018 is on the cards thanks to a sudden stratospheric warming event around the North Pole, a study reported.

During such episodes, the stratosphere — the layer 6–31 miles (10–50 km) above the Earth's surface — can increase in temperature by up to 90°F (50°C) over mere days.

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This disturbance can travel down through the atmosphere and — if it reaches the ground — can cause shifts in the jet stream that cool Europe and northern Asia. 

UK experts studied 40 stratospheric warming episodes from the last six decades — and learnt to track their signals that they travel down to the Earth's surface.

The current warming event may bring snowfall within weeks, they said yesterday — a prediction that appears to have come true with London dusted white this morning.

Another 'Beast from the East' could be on the cards thanks to a sudden stratospheric warming event around the North Pole, a study has warned. Pictured, the cold weather seen in 2018

Another 'Beast from the East' could be on the cards thanks to a sudden stratospheric warming event around the North Pole, a study has warned. Pictured, the cold weather seen in 2018

The current warming event may bring snowfall within weeks, they said yesterday — a prediction that appears to have come true with London and Birmingham (pictured) waking up to a dusting of white this morning

The current warming event may bring snowfall within weeks, they said yesterday — a prediction that appears to have come true with London and Birmingham (pictured) waking up to a dusting of white this morning

'While an extreme cold weather event is not a certainty, around two thirds of sudden stratospheric warmings have a significant impact on surface weather,' said paper author and climate dynamics expert Richard Hall of the University of Bristol.

There is an increased chance of extreme cold temperatures — and potentially snow, also — over the next week of two, he continued. 

'What’s more, [the current] sudden stratospheric warming is potentially the most dangerous kind, where the polar vortex splits into two smaller "child" vortices.' 

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'Our study quantifies for the first time the probabilities of when we might expect extreme surface weather following a sudden stratospheric warming event,' said paper author and mathematician William Seviour of the University of Exeter.

'These vary widely,

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