Is this the beginning of the end for the Thames Barrier? As the structure turns ... trends now
It's been protecting London from costly and potentially deadly flooding since 1984.
But as the Thames Barrier celebrates its 40th anniversary, scientists have warned that the £535 million structure – opened by Queen Elizabeth II on May 8, 1984 – might not provide an adequate flood defence until 2070 as planned.
Repeated closures of its 10 steel-clad gates due to wild weather from climate change will add wear and tear, prompting the need for a replacement much sooner than previously thought.
However, Richard Tol, a professor of economics at the University of Sussex, called the replacement project 'risky'.
'It will need to be replaced at one point – a major infrastructure project,' he told MailOnline.
When it opened back in 1984, the Thames Barrier was built to last until 2030.
But in 2009, the Environment Agency, which operates the Thames Barrier, decided that the structure could carry on protecting London until 2070.
However, the gates are only designed to close a maximum of 50 times per year, and experts say the number of annual closures will exceed this figure in the near future as weather becomes wilder.
According to Hannah Cloke, professor of hydrology at the University of Reading, this means a replacement barrier will need to be sorted out 'quite soon'.
'We're walking into a future where we know we've got more rainfall coming,' she told the Financial Times.
'It's definitely not looking the same as it was when the Thames Barrier was designed and built.
'If we do need to close the Thames Barrier more than we thought we did, then it's going to have a shorter lifespan.'
While 2070 sounds quite far away, Professor Tol told MailOnline that experts need to start planning sooner rather than later.
'The experience with HS2 and the third runway for Heathrow suggests that the UK is not very good at the timely implementation of big projects and extending the lifetime of the Thames Barrier is a testament to that,' he explained.
'At the same time, new houses and new industries are being built in East London near the Thames. It is all a bit risky.'
The Thames Barrier is a series of 10 steel gates across the width of the Thames, which are raised when London is threatened by high tides and storm surges up from the North Sea
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Dr Jonathan Paul, a senior lecturer in earth sciences at Royal Holloway, University of London, called the Thames Barrier an 'impressive feat of engineering' that has been 'highly effective' at protecting London from storm surge events.
'While we don't know precisely how climate change will be manifest in local weather patterns, it is likely that sudden cloudbursts will become more frequent and dramatic, which would test the capacity of the barrier,' he told MailOnline.
