From the moment she became Prime Minister in July 2016, Theresa May has fought with astounding commitment to honour the result of the EU referendum which took place the previous month.
We’ll never know what would have happened if the Brexiteer duo of Boris Johnson and Michael Gove hadn’t come to blows, and found themselves in the driving seat that has been occupied by Mrs May.
Conceivably they would have secured a better deal.
From the moment she became Prime Minister in July 2016, Theresa May has fought with astounding commitment to honour the result of the EU referendum which took place the previous month
But it’s certain they would have had to grapple with the same ineluctable difficulties, foremost among which have been the single-minded determination of the EU to drive a hard bargain, and its remarkable success – in defiance of the predictions of some Brexiteers – in staying united during negotiations with the Government.
Johnson and Gove would have had to deal with the same disputatious Parliament, overwhelmingly pro-Remain but fractured into numerous factions, each with its own inflexible notion of the best way of delivering – or not delivering – Brexit.
Of course the Prime Minister has made mistakes. We can all recite them with the benefit of hindsight.
The fact remains she was dealt a much more difficult hand than she or anyone else realised.
Leaving the EU on satisfactory terms was bound to be a monumental challenge.
What can scarcely be denied is that she has shown awe-inspiring resilience. Despite being a diabetic who injects herself with insulin five times a day, she has discharged her duty tirelessly.
We’ll never know what would have happened if Brexiteer duo Boris Johnson and Michael Gove hadn’t come to blows, and found themselves in the driving seat. They would have had to deal with the same disputatious Parliament, pro-Remain but fractured into numerous factions, each with its own inflexible notion of the best way of delivering Brexit (or not)
She has recovered from set-backs that would have floored most human beings.
It is therefore hard, because she has these heroic qualities, to say that the best chance she has of rescuing her deal, and delivering what she has battled for so magnificently, is for her to sacrifice her prime ministership.
If she accepts this bitter truth, she will go down in history as the woman who, despite enormous problems, delivered Brexit.
But if she can’t bring herself to offer up her own political life, she will probably be led from the stage ignominiously, without Brexit having been accomplished.
Let’s examine the options cool-headedly. Other than Mrs May’s deal – to which she made clear yesterday in the Commons she remains committed while accepting there’s ‘still not sufficient support for it’ – there are two options on the table.
One is accepting membership of the customs union, as Labour and Remainer Tories have long argued we should. The other is again extending Article 50, so that we don’t leave the EU for many months, if at all.
The best chance Theresa May has of rescuing her deal, and delivering what she has battled for so magnificently, is for her to sacrifice her prime ministership
Note I don’t suggest No Deal is properly on the table, despite the EU’s contention yesterday that it is becoming increasingly likely.
Naturally one can’t entirely rule it out. But with a majority in the Commons and the Cabinet against such an outcome, and Mrs May herself opposed, it’s difficult to see how it could transpire.
So we should consider the two plausible options I’ve mentioned. If the Commons with Labour support now endorses membership of the customs union, the Prime Minister couldn’t embrace such a policy without losing all credibility.
She has fought against it at every turn, and insisted that the 2017 Tory Party manifesto reject it.
Alternatively, the Commons may not vote in sufficient numbers in favour of continued membership of the customs union, or the Government might ignore it if it did, as Mrs May suggested yesterday it could choose to do.
In that event, the only sane alternative would be to seek a further extension from the EU, in which case the UK would be required to hold elections for the European Parliament in late May.
