President Trump is likely to win re-election thanks to the strong economy and an uncertain primary race in the Democratic Party, investment giant Goldman Sachs says.
Goldman analysts compiled a report which gives the president a ‘narrow advantage’ over potential rivals for the 2020 general election, which is some 19 months away.
According to economists Alec Phillips and Blake Taylor, Trump currently has an edge over any potential Democrat due to the usual advantage enjoyed by incumbents.
‘The advantage of first term incumbency and the relatively strong economic performance ahead of the presidential election suggest that President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,’ the analysis, which was obtained by Bloomberg, found.
'President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,’ according to experts at investment banker Goldman Sachs
Goldman experts predict that the U.S. economy will grow 2.5 per cent this year and 2.3 per cent in 2020.
That rate of growth should reduce unemployment from 3.7 per cent this year to 3.3 per cent next year, the analysts say.
Phillips and Taylor believe that the relatively low unemployment and the rise in income levels are better indicators of how a presidential election will turn out than other factors.
Experts will pay particularly close attention to the performance of the economy in the second quarter of next year.
Still, the analysts do take into account the fact that Trump’s overall approval rating, which is below 50 per cent, means that he is far from a sure thing for re-election.
The Goldman analysis predicts that the 2020 election will be a ‘close call,’ according to Yahoo Finance.
‘President Trump is more likely to win a second term than the eventual Democratic candidate is to defeat him,’ Goldman wrote.
‘While we believe the majority of market participants expect President Trump to win a second term, we note that prediction markets point in the opposite direction and imply that the Democratic candidate has a 56% probability of winning and the Republican candidate has a 44% chance.’
