Scott Morrison WINS: Liberal leader will stay on as PM

Scott Morrison will remain as Prime Minister after an extraordinary night saw the Coalition claim an unexpected election win.

In a result which opinion polls and betting markets failed to predict, the Liberal and the National parties recorded strong swings to them - particularly in Queensland - granting them a possible slim majority or a minority with the support of independents.

The result was called shortly after 9.30pm AEST - as results began to be called in Western Australia.    

Labor struggled to pick up enough seats even in Melbourne, in its strongest state Victoria, and has lost electorates in Brisbane, north Queensland, western Sydney and Tasmania.

ABC election analyst Antony Green said Labor had little hope of even forming a minority government, with Labor failing to pick up any marginal seats in Perth.

'At this stage, we think the Morrison Government has been re-elected. We can't see an alternative to a Morrison Government in the numbers we're seeing at the moment,'  he said.

'We can't say whether the Government will be in a majority or minority, but we're certainly seeing enough numbers to say that the Coalition will end up with more seats than Labor.'

Mr Green said the result was a 'spectacular failure of opinion polls' with the upset representing the first occasion since 2004 that a federal government has enjoyed a swing towards it.

Former Liberal prime minister John Howard, who won that election, said voters had rejected Labor's 'class division'.

'I thought we were in with a show,' he said. 

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Ironically, the Coalition had not won a Newspoll since 2016 and Labor had won 55 consecutive Newspolls going into the election.

Labor, so far, appears to have only gained the NSW South Coast seat of Gilmore, where the Liberal Party was running former Labor national president Warren Mundine, and possibly Chisholm in Melbourne's south-east where sitting member Julia Banks had quit the Liberal Party to sit as an independent.

It has an outside chance of winning Boothby, in Adelaide's south, with a swing of 3.2 per cent towards it - in a seat the Liberal Party has held since 1949. 

LABOR BLOODBATH

Longman, in northern Brisbane, appears lost with sitting Labor member Susan Lamb suffering a 4.2 per cent swing against her.

Herbert, which Labor's Cathy O'Toole won by just 37 votes in 2016, has been turfed out of this Townsville-based electorate in north Queensland with a swing against her of 6.7 per cent. 

It has also lost Lindsay, in western Sydney, suffering a swing against it of 4.2 per cent. Labor disendorsed Emma Husar after her staff made bullying allegations. 

Bass in northern Tasmania is also out of its grasp, with the Liberal securing a 6.7 per cent to it. 

Braddon, in Tasmania's west, has also thrown out Labor, which saw a 5.6 per cent swing against it. 

Mr Shorten's big-target strategy backfired, with voters rejecting his plans to curb negative gearing tax breaks for investor landlords, deprive share-owning retirees of franking credits and slash carbon emissions by 45 per cent by 2030.

Having now lost two elections, he will most likely to be replaced as Labor leader, six years after he beat left-faction contender Anthony Albanese, even though his opponent had more support from party members in a postal ballot.

His Sydney-based deputy Tanya Plibersek is another possible leadership contender and blamed preferences from One Nation and mining magnate Clive Palmer's United Australia Party for the poor result in Queensland.

'It's not the result we'd hoped for in Queensland,' she told the ABC.

Mr Howard likened Labor's loss to the 1993 'unloseable' election when Liberal leader John Hewson was defeated, campaigning for a 15 per cent GST, after being ahead in the polls. 

On the NSW Central Coast, which had a high number of retirees, the Liberal Party recorded a 4.3 per cent swing to it, boosting sitting member Lucy Wicks' margin to 5.5 per cent. 

The Liberal Party, however, has been punished in one of Sydney's wealthiest electorates. 

Former prime minister Tony Abbott became the first major casualty of an surprising general election, losing his blue-ribbon seat of Warringah after 25 years in Parliament.

His independent challenger Zali Steggall, a Winter Olympic skiing medalist, has romped home on Sydney's northern beaches in a contest fought over climate change action.  

Steggall had an impressive 49.2 per cent of first-preference votes compared to just 35.4 per cent for Mr Abbott, in early counting, representing a mammoth 11.4 per cent swing against the Liberal Party.

'I know I'm going to sound croaky but what a day,' she said, claiming victory. 

Taking a dig at her socially-conservative opponent Mr Abbott, she this was 'a win for moderates with a heart.'

'I will be a climate leader for you,' she said. 'I will hold the new government to account and make sure they take action on climate change.'

She paid tribute to the former PM's 'work ethic and contribution to this community'. 

Conceding defeat, Mr Abbott said: 'I'd rather be a loser than a quitter.'

He also declared Mr Morrison, who replaced Mr Turnbull as PM in August, would be a Liberal Party legend.

'Scott Morrison will rightly enter the Liberal pantheon forever,' he said. 

Former Nationals deputy prime minister Barnaby Joyce slammed GetUp! and left-wing activists for targeting Mr Abbott, as the Coalition recorded strong swings to it in Brisbane's outer suburbs and regional Queensland.

'You went after Tony you clowns ... and forgot about everyone else,' he told the ABC. 

In Queensland, the Labor Party suffered a 4.4 per cent against it, making it the Opposition's worst state.

Liberal Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton has survived and recorded a 3.8 per cent to him in his marginal northern Brisbane seat of Dickson, despite earlier controversy earlier in the campaign where he questioned the living arrangements of his Labor opponent Ali France, who lost a leg in 2011.

He described his win as 'the sweetest victory of all ' - quoting former Labor prime minister Paul Keating's victory speech in 1993, when won the 'unloseable' election.

The Sunshine State was bad for Labor, which was on course to lose neighbouring Longman, in Brisbane's north, with a 4.1 per cent swing to the Liberal National Party.

Herbert, which Labor's Cathy O'Toole won by 37 votes in 2016, was lost, with a seven per cent swing to the LNP.

The Liberal National Party is also recording strong swings to it in its marginal seats of Capricornia, Dawson, Petrie and Forde. 

Conceding defeat, Tony Abbott said: 'I'd rather be a loser than a quitter.' He also declared Mr Morrison, who replaced Mr Turnbull as PM in August, would be a Liberal Party legend. 'Scott Morrison will rightly enter the Liberal pantheon forever,' he said

Conceding defeat, Tony Abbott said: 'I'd rather be a loser than a quitter.' He also declared Mr Morrison, who replaced Mr Turnbull as PM in August, would be a Liberal Party legend. 'Scott Morrison will rightly enter the Liberal pantheon forever,' he said


Former Liberal prime minister Tony Abbott has lost his Sydney northern beaches seat of Warringah

His independent challenger Zali Steggall, a Winter Olympic skiing medalist, had an impressive 49.2 per cent of first-preference votes

 Former prime minister Tony Abbott has become the first major casualty lost of an increasingly uncertain election, losing his blue-ribbon seat of Warringah after 25 years in Parliament

Senior Labor frontbencher Penny Wong acknowledged the areas of Australia north of the Tweed were historically hard for her party to maintain support.

'Queensland's tough for us,' she told the ABC. 

NSW Liberal senator Arthur Sinodinos said Prime Minister Scott Morrison was 'straight forward' and popular in the outer suburbs of Brisbane.

'A personifies a certain daggyness people aspire to,' he told the ABC.

Senator Sinodinos said the anti-Adani protests led by a former Greens leader - 'Bob Brown's caravan' - had also hurt Labor in north Queensland.

Tasmania is also punishing the Opposition, with the regional seats of Bass and Braddon going to the Liberal Party with swings of six per cent. 

Labor is also suffering double-digit swings against it in in western Sydney, where it looks likely to lose the seat of Lindsay and possibly neighbouring Macquarie.

Liberal Immigration Minister David Coleman has retained the south-west Sydney seat of Banks with a 4.3 per cent swing towards him, boosting his margin to 5.8 per cent in a seat that Labor had held from 1949 to 2013.

This is in stark contrast to an early Nine Network/Galaxy exit poll which showed Bill Shorten would be Australia's next prime minister, with the Opposition ahead of the Coalition 52 to 48 per cent on a two-party preferred basis nationwide.

The poll surveyed 33 electorates across six states and found a swing to the ALP in every state, ranging from 1.1 per cent in Queensland, 3.2 per cent in Victoria and 2.5 per cent in New South Wales. 

TONY ABBOTT'S CONCESSION SPEECH

I'm going to do something which I did 25 years ago, in a earlier speech at this club. 

And that was the speech I gave at my pre-selection. I'm going to move this lectern out of the way.

Well, first, I want to say to all of you that tonight we've got good news and, yes, we've got a little bit of bad news. But the good news is much more important than the bad news.

The good news is that there is every chance that the Liberal-National Coalition has won this election!

This - this is a really extraordinary result. It is a stupendous result. It is a great result for Scott Morrison and the rest of the wider Liberal team, and Scott Morrison will now, quite rightly, enter the Liberal pantheon forever.

So... So, of course, it's disappointing for us here in Warringah, but what matters is what's best for the country. And what's best for the country is not so much who wins or loses Warringah, but who forms, or does not form, a government in Canberra. 

And tonight we can be extraordinarily confident, more confident than we ever had any right to expect, that we will have continued good Liberal-National government.

Now... I have to say that once we had the result in the Wentworth by-election, uh, six months or so back, I always knew it was going to be tough here in Warringah. And I can't say that it doesn't hurt to lose. But I decided back then, in October of last year, that if I had to lose, so be it. I'd rather be a loser than a quitter.

And I do acknowledge the fierce and ultimately successful campaign that has been waged by my political opponents in this speech. I do congratulate Zali Steggall on what is a magnificent win for her. 

And I hope that she will have the long and successful career as local member that the people of Warringah deserve. 

But I think we can see that there is something of a realignment of politics going on right around this country. It's clear that in what might be described as 'working seats', we are doing so much better. 

It's also clear that in at least some of what might be described as 'wealthy seats', we are doing it tough, and the Green left is doing better. 

But the truth is that if you believe that the most important thing is to raise people up, if you believe that the most important thing is to give people a better life, the fact that so many people in seats that might be thought of as doing it tough are now looking to our party for leadership is a great tribute and a great credit.

To our party, to our Government.

Over the next few days and weeks, I suspect there will be a great deal of analysis of the part that climate change did, or did not, play in the Warringah outcome. And let me just say this, as my first word, if not necessarily my last word, on this subject.

Where climate change is a moral issue, we Liberals do it tough. But where climate change is an economic issue, as a result, tonight shows we do very, very well.

It's often said that all public lives end badly. But I'm certainly not going to let one bad day spoil 25 great years.

I'm incredibly proud of all that I've done. Obviously, there are some things that, with the wisdom of hindsight, might have been done differently and better. But I've gotta say that I can look back on the last 25 years - and I do look back on the last 25 years - with immense pride and satisfaction.

And I'm incredibly proud of the fact thatso far, I am one of just four people in history who has led our party from opposition into government in Canberra. And I hope that the Morrison Government has such a long life that it's a long time until there is a fifth.

Finally, some thankyous. 

I don't believe that the Warringah campaign could have done more or done better. I think every aspect of our campaign was as good as it humanly could have been under the circumstances. I want to thank Peter O'Hanlon for his outstanding job.

I thank Michelle Moffatt for her outstanding work as the deputy. And I think Roger Corbett, a really great Australian, for coming into the team as my conference president. I thank my staff. I could not have had a better, more loyal and more professional staff, particularly Sam Jackson-Hope.

I thank my family. Margie, you have been a wonderfully supportive spouse.I thank my children, two of whom can't be here tonight, but one of whom did a wonderful job of winning votes up at Allambie Heights School.

I thank my mum. We are all what our parents made us. And I thank my sisters, all three of whom were booth captains today. For the first time ever,

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