Interactive map shows where next coronavirus hotspots are likeliest to flare up ...

A new interactive map shows where the next coronavirus hotspots are likeliest to flare up in the next three weeks.

The Imperial College London document highlights areas across England and Wales where infections are increasing.

Breckland, a local authority in Norfolk, looks likely to be a high-risk area in just a fortnight, the data suggests.

Other areas seeing a rise in cases are all in the north of England, such as Bolton, Rossendale in Lancashire and Leeds in West Yorkshire.

South Tyneside in Tyne and Wear and Pendle, Lancashire - which are already seeing spikes - are expected to remain high, according to the map.

Professor Axel Gandy, from the Department of Mathematics at Imperial, said 'The model allows us to project where local hotspots of Covid-19 are likely to develop in England and Wales based on the trends that we are seeing in those areas.

'Covid-19 is, unfortunately, very much still with us, but we hope this will be a useful tool for local and national governments trying to bring hotspots under control.'

Researchers at Imperial said they 'define a local authority to be a hotspot if weekly reported cases per 100,000 population exceed 50'.

The team used data on daily reported cases, weekly reported deaths and mathematical modelling to report the probability a local authority will become a hotspot in the following week.

The site also provides estimates for each local authority in England and Wales on whether cases are likely to be increasing or decreasing in the following week.

Britain has recorded another 17 coronavirus deaths on Thursday in the preliminary count

Britain has recorded another 17 coronavirus deaths on Thursday in the preliminary count

The predictions assume no change in current interventions - such as lockdowns, and school closures - in a local authority beyond those already taken about a week before the end of observations.

The team notes an increase in cases in a local authority can be due to an increase in testing, which the model does not currently account for.

The model also assumes all individuals within each local authority are equally likely to be infected, so demographic factors such as the age structure of the population are not considered.

Dr Swapnil Mishra, from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, added: 'We provide weekly predictions of the evolution of Covid-19 at the local authority level in England and Wales.

'Our model helps to identify hotspots – probable local areas of concern. We hope that our estimates will enable swift action at the local level to control the spread of the epidemic.'

It is likely Pendle and Bolton will remain hotspots for the next two weeks, according to modelling by Imperial College London. Researchers led by Professor Axel Gandy have today revealed a website which estimates the probability that a location in England will be struck down with high Covid-19 cases, based on current data

It is likely Pendle and Bolton will remain hotspots for the next two weeks, according to modelling by Imperial College London. Researchers led by Professor Axel Gandy have today revealed a website which estimates the probability that a location in England will be struck down with high Covid-19 cases, based on current data

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