Delaying Freedom Day could lead to MORE Covid deaths in winter, Chris Whitty ...

Delaying Freedom Day could lead to MORE Covid deaths in winter, Chris Whitty ...
Delaying Freedom Day could lead to MORE Covid deaths in winter, Chris Whitty ...

Delaying lockdown beyond July 19 will not reduce the number of Covid deaths and could potentially lead to a worse peak in winter, Professor Chris Whitty warned last night.

The Chief Medical Officer acknowledged that while some restrictions would always be better than none in terms of containing Covid, at some point they have to be released for the sake of the economy and wider health.

Professor Whitty revealed he believed 'quite strongly' that there are many benefits to unlocking now rather than waiting until autumn - which some have suggested could buy No10 time to get every adult fully vaccinated. 

It would get the big bang of Covid infections and hospital admissions — expected when social distancing comes to an end — out of the way in summer when the NHS is less busy.

'At a certain point, you move to the situation where instead of actually averting hospitalisations and deaths, you move over to just delaying them,' the CMO told a Downing Street press conference last night. 

Insurance Loans Mortgage Attorney Credit Lawyer

'So you're not actually changing the number of people who will go to hospital or die, you may change when they happen. 

'There is quite a strong view by many people, including myself actually, that going in the summer has some advantages, all other things being equal, to opening up into the autumn when schools are going back and when we're heading into the winter period when the NHS tends to be under greatest pressure for many other reasons.' 

The comments come on the back of modelling from prominent SAGE member 'Professor Lockdown' Neil Ferguson that suggested late July was an apparent 'sweet spot' for releasing curbs.

His team at Imperial College London found delaying the original June 21 date until later this month likely prevented thousands of deaths. Delaying them until autumn or winter could result in more fatalities. 

Even though more people would be vaccinated, scientists believe releasing curbs in winter would cause a bigger spike because people spend more time indoors and other respiratory viruses are rife. The NHS will also be grappling with normal winter pressures. 

Professor Whitty, Professor Ferguson, who was instrumental in Britain's first lockdown last spring, and Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, are both believed to be in the 'if not now, then when' camp. 

During a round of interviews this morning, the normally cautious Professor Ferguson said pressing ahead with July was 'justifiable' and revealed he was 'reasonably optimistic'.

HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS: Modelling by Professor Neil Ferguson's team at Imperial College London found that delaying Freedom Day until December (shown in green) to let all adults get double-vaccinated would push the peak in Covid hospital admissions further into winter, rather than reducing the number of admissions completely. The yellow line shows the effect on admissions if the unlocking was to go ahead in late July, with hospitalisations peaking in summer and plummeting by winter. Releasing curbs in June (blue) or early July (red) would have led to a bigger peak in summer, which is why the decision was made to push the original June 21 Freedom Day back by a month

HOSPITAL ADMISSIONS: Modelling by Professor Neil Ferguson's team at Imperial College London found that delaying Freedom Day until December (shown in green) to let all adults get double-vaccinated would push the peak in Covid hospital admissions further into winter, rather than reducing the number of admissions completely. The yellow line shows the effect on admissions if the unlocking was to go ahead in late July, with hospitalisations peaking in summer and plummeting by winter. Releasing curbs in June (blue) or early July (red) would have led to a bigger peak in summer, which is why the decision was made to push the original June 21 Freedom Day back by a month

COVID INPATIENTS: The same was true for hospital occupancy levels and, although the graphs don't explicitly show it, the team at Imperial said in some scenarios, delaying the unlocking until December could lead to more deaths. In their paper, they write: 'In some of our modelled scenarios, this long delay paradoxically leads to more total deaths since the third wave would be pushed into the winter, when transmission may be higher because of seasonality and increased indoors interactions, and when an increased proportion of individuals may have lost protection from prior infection'

Insurance Loans Mortgage Attorney Credit Lawyer

COVID INPATIENTS: The same was true for hospital occupancy levels and, although the graphs don't explicitly show it, the team at Imperial said in some scenarios, delaying the unlocking until December could lead to more deaths. In their paper, they write: 'In some of our modelled scenarios, this long delay paradoxically leads to more total deaths since the third wave would be pushed into the winter, when transmission may be higher because of seasonality and increased indoors interactions, and when an increased proportion of individuals may have lost protection from prior infection'

He made the comments at a Downing Street press conference tonight, where Boris Johnson confirmed that most social distancing rules will no longer be mandatory from July 19

He made the comments at a Downing Street press conference tonight, where Boris Johnson confirmed that most social distancing rules will no longer be mandatory from July 19

Speaking about last night's announcement, Professor Ferguson told the Today Programme: 'This is a slight gamble, it's a slight experiment at the moment, and I think it's justifiable and I'm reasonable optimistic, but policy will have to remain flexible.'

He said the vaccines' effect on hospitalisations and deaths gave him confidence that the NHS will be able to cope despite rising cases, but warned that if infections continue to grow exponentially then hospitals could be pushed to the brink. 

The Government scientific adviser added: 'At the peak of the second wave 50,000 cases would translate into something like 500 deaths, but that's going to be much lower this time, more like 50 or so.

'The challenge is, there's still the potential of getting very large numbers of cases and so if we get very high numbers of cases a day, 150,000 or 200,000 it could still cause some pressure to the health system. 

Time for the bar! From table service to working from home, those changing rules 

Boris Johnson tonight firmed up plans for unlocking England on July 19.

The PM used a press conference to confirm a bonfire of virus rules and restrictions from the so-called Freedom Day, saying individuals will again be able to judge the risks of coronavirus for themselves.

However, he did not have any decisive announcements in key areas, with no date for quarantine requirements to be waived for double-jabbed Brits travelling to 'amber list' countries.

There was also no confirmation that self-isolation can be replaced with testing for the fully-vaccinated.

And although there was a clear intention for bubble rules in schools to be axed, it is not expected to happen until September when the new term starts. 

WHAT THE PM ANNOUNCED: 

Pubs and restaurants 

Hospitality venues in England will no longer be required to collect track and trace data from July 19. Businesses won't have to ask customers to scan a QR code using the NHS phone app on entry or to hand over their contact details, although they will have the option of continuing to do so if they wish. Mandatory table service rules will also be scrapped, meaning drinkers will be able to order at the bar again in pubs.

Masks 

Wearing masks will become voluntary everywhere apart from hospitals and other health facilities from July 19 in England. Public transport passengers, shoppers and those visiting pubs, restaurants, cinemas and theatres will no longer be required by law to cover up. However, people may still be encouraged to wear masks in some enclosed places where they come into close contact with each other, for example on London Tube trains. 

Work from home 

The official guidance telling people to 'work from home if you can' will be scrapped on July 19 in England. But it will be left up to employers and their staff to decide whether they have to go back to their desks. Ministers will not launch a campaign encouraging staff back to the office and are resigned to there not being a mass return to workplaces this summer.

AND WHAT THE PM DIDN'T ANNOUNCE

Holidays 

Ministers have been working on a system to open up holiday destinations for double-jabbed Britons. 

People who have had both vaccine doses could no longer have to quarantine for ten days after visiting amber list countries, such as Spain, France and Greece. 

However, there is not set to be any definitive news on the rules tonight and Government sources have cautioned the July 19 date is 'ambitious'.

TEST AND TRACE

Pressure has been growing for people who have received both coronavirus vaccine doses to be spared isolating at home for ten days if they have come into contact with someone who tested positive. 

They could be offered lateral flow tests to do themselves at home instead. 

However, ministers have not come to a conclusion on whether to go

read more from dailymail.....

PREV The real reason Tokyo is choosing to run prime-time Olympic swimming finals in ...
NEXT Just HALF a portion of grapefruits can slash the risk of mental decline by over ...