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SAGE today signed off on plans to end Covid restrictions in England next week after estimating there will be 10 times fewer deaths and half as many hospital admissions in the third wave compared to previous peaks.
Modelling by the expert group said it was realistic to expect between 100 to 200 daily fatalities and 1,000 to 2,000 hospital admissions at the worst of the current outbreak this autumn, following the unlocking on July 19.
There is a 10-fold lower risk of dying from Covid now than in the second wave because of the 'vaccine effect' and the fact younger people now make up the bulk of cases, SAGE revealed.
For this reason the group expects the number of daily deaths to be 'considerably smaller' than the 1,200 recorded in January and anticipates hospital admissions will stay 'well below' the 4,000 in the winter.
The forecasts were revealed as part of a tranche of documents published today ahead of the Downing Street press conference and have given No10 the confidence to press ahead with Freedom Day next Monday.
While all the modelling points towards a much smaller epidemic than previously seen, SAGE admitted its calculations were highly uncertain and warned that the crisis could quickly spiral out of control if people
