Experts said Rishi Sunak could have been handed a 'get out' clause on the state pension 'triple lock' today - despite figures showing OAPs in line for a rise of up to 8 per cent this year.
Total wage growth excluding bonuses spiked to 6.6 per cent in the three months to May, according to the latest official data.
Economists say the effects of furlough and the pandemic are warping the figures, and the level could reach 8 per cent by the quarter to July - which is used for setting the state pension increase under the government's mechanism. That would drive up costs for the Treasury by more than £3billion a year.
However, the Office for National Statistics appeared to give the Chancellor a new option this morning by estimating that 'underlying' wage growth is around half that figure.
It said the true rate of earnings increases was probably between 3.2 per cent and 4.4 per cent.
Total wage growth excluding bonuses spiked to 6.6 per cent in the three months to May, according to the latest official data
Paul Johnson, head of the respected IFS think-tank, said the triple lock legislation 'allows wiggle room over definition of earnings growth'.
'Using ''underlying'' measure would meet spirit of commitment, still generous, and billions less expensive,' he tweeted.
Treasury sources insisted they will wait until the autumn to make a decision on the pension increase, but said it was clear this year would be an 'anomaly'.
The Tory manifesto committed to keeping the 'triple lock', which guarantees that the state pension rises by the highest out of inflation, earnings or 2.5 per cent.
However, there has been growing alarm at the potential scale of the rise this year amid the pandemic.
Mr Sunak recently said concerns surrounding the figures are 'completely legitimate'.
The blog by ONS statistician Jonathan Athow today identified two reasons why the wage figures were not reflecting reality.
'In spring-summer 2020, many workers were on furlough or had their hours reduced,' he wrote.
'This meant that people saw their earnings fall, pushing down weekly wages. This year, with fewer people on furlough and
