Britain's daily Covid infections have risen slightly today as another 44,104 people tested positive but deaths were up significantly with 73 more victims.
In a promising sign, today's cases mark an increase of just 4 per cent on the figure last Wednesday. Fatalities, on the other, hand are up by nearly 50 per cent week-on-week.
Some experts believe that increased mixing during the Euro 2020 final at Wembley earlier this month fuelled the epidemic and they expect cases to start declining by this weekend.
One of those scientists, Professor Paul Hunter, an epidemiologist at the University of East Anglia, told MailOnline: 'Today's infections are remarkably low. I think over next couple of days we'll actually see some falls in cases.
'I'm more convinced than ever that the government's done the right thing by opening up this week. If we hadn't had the Euros, infections might have already been falling already.'
However, hospital admissions are also running higher than the Government's scientific advisers predicted at this point, which has raised concerns England could be forced back into a quasi-lockdown within weeks.
SAGE has briefed Boris Johnson that he should be prepared to roll back some mandatory curbs — such as mask wearing, social distancing and home working — in the first week of August if hospitalisations don't slow down.
It would mark another extraordinary U-turn and put an end to people's newfound liberties just three short weeks after 'Freedom Day' was given the go-ahead on July 19.
In models published earlier this month, SAGE estimated that daily Covid admissions would reach between 1,000 and 2,000 at the peak of a third wave in late August, while daily deaths were tipped to hit between 100 to 200.
But there are already signs that the crisis is on track to surpass those estimates. On July 14, the latest date for which data is available, there were 745 admissions for the virus across the UK and officials say this number is doubling every three weeks.
It suggests there could be 1,500 daily patients by the end of the first week of August and 3,000 by the end of the month, which would put the peak on par with the first wave last spring, when the NHS was close to breaking point.
Although cases are still rising, the speed at which they are increasing has slowed in recent days. In June, the daily average number of infections was rising at up to 75 per cent per week compared to around 36 per cent now. The yellow bars show the number of positive tests each day and the red line represents the week-on-week percentage growth
Three different teams within SAGE modelled how Covid hospital admissions could look after Freedom Day on July 19. Actual hospitalisations - which represent how many are occurring now - are shown in black and compared to various pessimistic, optimistic and central scenarios. The research teams simulated scenarios in which people quickly returned to normal and stopped wearing masks and others in which the public were more cautious. They also looked at various vaccine efficacy rates
While hospitalisations are trending upwards across the UK, the rate at which the number is increasing is slowing. Week on week data in the three weeks leading up to July 13 showed the rate hospitalisations were increasing at dropped from 52.9 per cent, to 36 per cent and then 30.4 per cent
Deaths are also already close to breaching the 100 mark after 96 were recorded yesterday.
A source told The i that any curbs reintroduced next month would be 'less of an emergency brake and more of a gear change', adding that mandatory face masks would be the 'easiest' measure to reimpose with the least resistance from the public.
A separate Government adviser told MailOnline that Mr Johnson should 'stay strong' and not be 'blown off course' at the first sign of adversity.
There will be questions about the timing of the leak, after it emerged today that ministers are preparing to adopt the new slogan 'keep life moving' in the coming days. It will replace 'hands, face, space' which was constantly repeated by ministers and featured heavily at Downing Street press conferences and on Government Covid warning adverts.
SAGE has insisted that there are still a lot of unknowns about how the epidemic will grow in the coming weeks, based on how people's behaviour changes following July 19, vaccine uptake and how well the jabs continue to perform.
For example, there are already very early signs that the rate at which hospitalisations are increasing has started to slow down. Admissions are rising by 39 per cent per week now compared to 57 per cent earlier this month.
Insiders also say ministers will be keeping an eye on ICU admissions, ventilator capacity and the length of hospital stay rather than solely on the number of admissions.
This is because patients are presenting with more mild symptoms and being discharged sooner in this wave compared to previous points of the crisis, thanks to the vaccines.
A source who sits on one of the Government other expert advisory groups told MailOnline: 'The focus on hospital admissions is misplaced. [The PM] needs to be looking at beds occupied, which is a much more important indicator than admissions.
'Thanks to the vaccines, admissions are not the same as they once were. Patients presenting now are not as demanding, they are not people who are desperately sick and need a high level of medical treatment. Of course there are still some.
'There is a broad consensus that the third peak will happen sometime in August and then start falling — just when the Government is being urged to reverse. We should stay strong and not be blown off course.
'The other issue is to what degree would a rapid backtracking [on Freedom Day] do to levels of fear and anxiety that has built up during the pandemic?'
Exactly when the third peak will happen is still not known but the experts believe it will be sometime in late August at the earliest.
They are bracing for more than 100,000 daily infections — which would dwarf the peak of 60,000 in January — and are expecting cases to stay 'extremely high' all summer.
There is a ten-fold lower risk of dying from Covid now than in the second wave and
