'Professor Lockdown' Neil Ferguson today raised hopes that the UK will be 'looking back' at the pandemic by October after Covid cases fell for a sixth day running.
The epidemiologist said the effect appeared to be 'real' and the R number could be slightly below one - although he cautioned that the situation is still very uncertain and there might be more spikes.
He suggested the dip was down to the end of the Euros football tournament and warmer weather meaning people were mixing indoor less.
Prof Ferguson said there could be 'uncertainty' into the Autumn, but stressed that the calculations had 'fundamentally' changed due to vaccines.
'I'm positive that by late September, October time, we will be looking back at most of the pandemic,' he said.
'We'll still have Covid with us, we'll still have people dying from Covid, but we will put the bulk of the pandemic behind us.'
Experts have suggested that high numbers of young people catching the disease during the Euros could have helped to squash the latest peak, as they now have some immunity and otherwise may not have been vaccinated.
Meanwhile, policing minister Kit Malthouse appealed for calm insisting the government is 'waiting' to see what happens to infections over the coming days.
He suggested that the outbreak might be dipping because schools had broken up for the summer, but admitted there was an 'interesting cocktail of effects' on the virus.
He added: 'Six days of drop is great, let's hope it continues, but we are waiting to see what happens over the next few days.'
'Professor Lockdown' Neil Ferguson (left) today raised hopes that the UK will be 'looking back' at the pandemic by September after Covid cases fell for a sixth day running. Policing minister Kit Malthouse (right) appealed for calm insisting the government is 'waiting' to see what happens to infections over the coming days
Despite predictions that daily cases could surge beyond 100,000 once restrictions were lifted, the Government reported 24,950 new cases yesterday.
That was a dramatic 38 per cent fall from the 39,950 announced last Monday when they were eased.
Figures suggest the virus is in retreat in all regions, including previously hard-hit areas such as the North East.
Nationally, it is the first sustained fall in coronavirus cases outside of a period of lockdown since the pandemic began more than 16 months ago.
Less than a fortnight ago, daily cases hit 54,674, with people gathering to watch the Euro 2020 finals thought to be to blame for a surge.
There were even predictions that daily case totals could top 200,000, preceding a return to restrictions in the autumn.
But since that peak, the fall has been dramatic. The total number of cases for the past seven days is down more than 20 per cent on the previous week.
Many experts believe that, as a result of the vaccination rollout and natural infection, the virus has met a wall of nationwide immunity.
And although the Prime Minister warned yesterday that the pandemic was not over and cases could rise again, some Cabinet ministers are increasingly confident the virus has simply run out of people to infect.
Paul Hunter of the University of East Anglia said the fall in cases was likely to be linked to Euro 2020 - and young people getting the disease had made the summer 'less stressful'.
'A lot of people might be disgusted by me saying this, but ultimately the Euros might turn out to be one of the things that make the rest of the summer less stressful, as we've effectively immunised a lot more younger people who wouldn't otherwise have come for or been available for a vaccine,' he told The Times.
'But I would stress that I would never suggest that as a control strategy in advance.'
Mr Malthouse said the government wanted to 'communicate the hell out of' encouraging young people to get a Covid jab.
Speaking on Sky News Mr Malthouse said: 'We are urging people to get out there and get the jab, and of course tens of thousands of people are every day and that is the other reason to try and urge as many young people as possible to get in there and do so.