Top US forecaster Nate Silver says Professor Ferguson is 'overconfident' in ...

Top US forecaster Nate Silver says Professor Ferguson is 'overconfident' in ...
Top US forecaster Nate Silver says Professor Ferguson is 'overconfident' in ...

Renowned US forecaster Nate Silver has slammed 'Professor Lockdown' Neil Ferguson's prediction that Covid cases would rise to 100,000 a day in the UK.

Silver, who uses models to predict the outcome of US presidential elections, said there were too many unknowns in the pandemic for anyone to confidently assert anything.

Professor Ferguson, from Imperial College, had predicted that the third wave could lead to a huge surge in infections, with up to 100,000 new cases a day by next month.

Renowned US forecaster Nate Silver (pictured) has slammed 'Professor Lockdown' Neil Ferguson's prediction that Covid cases would rise to 100,000 a day in the UK

Renowned US forecaster Nate Silver (pictured) has slammed 'Professor Lockdown' Neil Ferguson's prediction that Covid cases would rise to 100,000 a day in the UK

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Professor Ferguson, from Imperial College, had predicted that the third wave could lead to a huge surge in infections

Professor Ferguson, from Imperial College, had predicted that the third wave could lead to a huge surge in infections

But following the recent downturn in cases, Ferguson has revised his prediction and said Covid could be over by October.

Writing on Twitter, Silver said: 'Covid cases have fallen to 33,000 per day (7-day average) since Neil Ferguson, perhaps the UK's most prominent epidemiologist, said it was "almost inevitable" that cases would hit 100,000 a day.

'I don't care that the prediction is wrong, I'm sure this stuff is hard to predict. 

'It's that he's consistently so overconfident. Now he says he's "positive" the pandemic will be over by October. 

'Well, probably. But there are downside risks: new variants, waning immunity, etc.'

Silver, who uses models to predict the outcome of US presidential elections, said there were too many unknowns

Silver, who uses models to predict the outcome of US presidential elections, said there were too many unknowns

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Political scientist Philip Tetlock agreed, adding: 'Expect even top forecasters to make lots of mistakes.

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