Coronavirus Australia: Sydney could see 600 daily Covid cases if lockdown isn't ...

Coronavirus Australia: Sydney could see 600 daily Covid cases if lockdown isn't ...
Coronavirus Australia: Sydney could see 600 daily Covid cases if lockdown isn't ...

Sydney spiralling coronavirus crisis could see nearly 600 new daily cases by Friday if lockdown isn't tightened across the city, worrying new modelling suggests.

Infections could even hit an astonishing 7,700 new infections a day in a worst case scenario by the end of August, experts said, similar to the thousands of daily cases seen overseas with the Indian Delta variant.    

The Harbour City's latest outbreak began in the eastern suburbs and spread its tentacles to a range of local government areas in the south-west, but scientists say those hotspot areas are 'stabilising' and infection rates remain consistent.

But infections look to be doubling every 4-5 days in the rest of Sydney, with the scientists calling for equally tough rules to be put in place across every corner of the city.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian initially announced a week-long lockdown for Greater Sydney on June 26 when it became apparent the Indian Delta variant showed no signs of slowing, but the stay-home orders were quickly extended.

Sydneysiders are now in their sixth gruelling week of restrictions, but people in eight hard-hit LGAs, including Fairfield, Cantebury-Blacktown and Liverpool, are under a set of stricter rules to try and reduce case numbers.

Researchers have predicted Sydney's lockdown could get much worse. Pictured: A woman walking in Sydney's inner-west on Monday morning

Researchers have predicted Sydney's lockdown could get much worse. Pictured: A woman walking in Sydney's inner-west on Monday morning

Pictured: NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian speaks to the media during a press conference on August 2, after announcing 207 new cases in the state

Pictured: NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian speaks to the media during a press conference on August 2, after announcing 207 new cases in the state

Evidence collated by Professors Allan Saul, Brendan Crabb AC, Margaret Hellard AM and Dr Campbell Aitken of the Burnet Institute on Monday suggests the measures may be working - but the rest of Sydney is teetering on a knife's edge.

This was clear in a late night drop of exposure sites released on Monday, including fa Coles and Aldi on the city's Lower North Shore, as well as an auto parts store in Rockdale. 

Using analysis of what restrictions did and didn't work during Melbourne's outbreak last year, the team of scientists found NSW's effective contact tracing, use of QR codes and record testing rates had helped stop the outbreak spiralling into thousands of daily cases.

Without such measures, and a lockdown, Sydney could already be looking at 1,000 daily cases - but infections are still doubling on average every nine days.

The Aldi supermarket at Lane Cove on Sydney's Lower North Shore (pictured) has been flagged as a Covid exposure site - with experts fearing an explosion in cases outside the eight hotspot LGAs

The Aldi supermarket at Lane Cove on Sydney's Lower North Shore (pictured) has been flagged as a Covid exposure site - with experts fearing an explosion in cases outside the eight hotspot LGAs

A further 53 cases were recorded in the west and 48 were in the central Sydney local health district. Pictured: A woman walking in Bondi in Monday

A further 53 cases were recorded in the west and 48 were in the central Sydney local health district. Pictured: A woman walking in Bondi in Monday

But the modelling, based on how infections have spread to date, still predicted the city would see 570 cases per day by Friday. 

This is despite south-west Sydney's outbreak slowly coming under control, with infections still increasing rapidly in other areas of the city. 

The upward trend of daily cases in south-west Sydney's Fairfield reversed on July 15, six days after the three initial LGA's restrictions were tightened.  

Cumberland, Blacktown, Parramatta, Georges River and Campbelltown were added to the list of LGAs under stricter lockdowns on Friday and experts are hoping the numbers drop in those areas, but they say the restrictions should be broadened. 

'Although the number of cases is still lower outside south west Sydney, daily cases in the rest of Sydney are now increasing at about the same rate as happened initially in Fairfield – doubling every four to five days,' the research body said. 

Of the 207 new infections New South Wales recorded on Monday, 83 were found in the city's south-west. Pictured: health workers at Hardi Aged Care Nursing Home Facility at Summer Hill on August 2

Of the 207 new infections New South Wales recorded on Monday, 83 were found in the city's south-west. Pictured: health workers at Hardi Aged Care Nursing Home Facility at Summer Hill on August 2

FIND THE LATEST EXPOSURE SITES NEAR YOU

'Unless new controls introduced on July 28 or 30 or in the future have a major impact, our model projects that Sydney will have about 7,700 cases per day four weeks from now.'

The experts recommended bringing in 'consistent stringent restrictions', like those seen in the hotspot LGAs, all across the city. 

'Not only is this the equitable approach, but epidemiologically sound,' the report continued.

According to their modelling, it will take until the end of September to get below five new cases per day over a seven-day period.  

Some areas not included in the tightened restrictions, such as Burwood, Strathfield and Bayside are seeing higher case numbers per capita than those under the stricter lockdown. 

Australian Defence Force troops have joined NSW police patrolling streets in Sydney's west and southwest during lockdown (pictured, personnel in the city on Monday)

Australian Defence Force troops have joined NSW police patrolling streets in Sydney's west and southwest during lockdown (pictured, personnel in the city on Monday)

Of the 207 new infections New South Wales recorded on Monday, 83 were found in the city's south-west - but contact tracers say those infections are contained to the area.

Worryingly, a further 53 were recorded in the west and 48 were in the central Sydney local health district. 

To combat a potential explosion of cases, researchers suggested a tighter lockdown for the whole of Sydney. 

'The reality is that no one is safe until everyone is safe,' the experts warned. 

'Every positive case, no matter in which LGA, takes testing and contact tracing resources and has the potential to trigger new outbreaks.

The experts recommended bringing in 'consistent stringent restrictions', like those seen in the hotspot LGAs, all across the city (pictured, a runner in Bondi on Monday)

The experts recommended bringing in 'consistent stringent restrictions', like those seen in the hotspot LGAs, all across the city (pictured, a runner in Bondi on Monday)

Ms Berejiklian said on Monday that at least 50 of those newly-acquired infections were out in the community while infectious. Pictured: Cleaners in personal protective equipment at Strathfield South Public School on Monday

Ms Berejiklian said on Monday that at least 50 of those newly-acquired infections were out in the community while infectious. Pictured: Cleaners in personal protective equipment at Strathfield South Public School on Monday

'A highly mobile population means new outbreaks could occur anywhere in Sydney or NSW or across Australia.' 

But on a positive note, researchers found that a potential 1,000 new cases per day were avoided because

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