Professor Neil Ferguson said Scotland's Covid cases may be beginning to plateau
Scotland's Covid cases may already be plateauing barely a fortnight after the country's schools returned from the summer holidays, 'Professor Lockdown' Neil Ferguson has said.
Cases more than doubled on the back of Scottish classes returning from the summer break on August 18 and there were fears the rest of the UK would be hit with a similar surge with millions of pupils heading back today.
But latest data from the UK Government's Covid dashboard suggests that while case numbers are still very high in Scotland, they no longer appear to be growing.
The number of people testing positive nationally appears to have peaked at a record 7,113 on August 29, after surging from around 2,500 in the week schools went back.
But the seven-day average for infections has hovered around 6,000 since then in a clear sign the country's outbreak is no longer growing. Today Scotland recorded 7,065 cases.
Professor Ferguson — a SAGE adviser whose predictions of thousands of deaths spooked ministers into the first lockdown — said the data suggested 'the hint of a plateau' in infections.
It is an encouraging sign for the rest of the UK that suggests that even if other countries are hit hard with a big bang in cases over the first couple of weeks after schools return it will not be long lasting.
Professor Ferguson, from Imperial College London, warned England had some 'difficult weeks ahead', however, because of the surge in cases predicted to hit over the winter months when the NHS is under the greatest pressure.
England has followed Scotland's Covid trajectory this summer with cases spiralling in both countries following their national team's success in the Euros.
As children head back to the classroom in England infections are 13 times higher than they were last September, when the end of the summer holidays then sparked the second wave.
It comes amid calls for 12 to 15-year-olds to be offered the Covid vaccine, with some SAGE advisers arguing that it would help to head off a surge in infections later this winter.
But others have argued it would be ethically dubious to inoculate the age group when millions of people in poorer countries are still waiting to be vaccinated.
Data for the country showed its cases hit their peak on August 29 when 7,113 were recorded. But since then they have hovered at around 6,000 a day in a sure sign the country's outbreak may no longer be growing
The above is a snip of Covid cases in Scotland since June by date recorded. It shows that the seven-day average for cases (blue line) now appears to have started to level off, in a sure sign the country's outbreak is no longer growing.
England's Covid cases have plateaued over the last month ahead of schools returning, data shows. The country is currently recording around 26,000 new infections every day on average (pictured). Experts fear this will surge in the coming days, however, amid the return of schools
Professor Ferguson told an event hosted by the Institute for Government: 'I think we may see a difficult few weeks. Exactly how long that will go on for is unclear but maybe Scotland gives us some indication.
'They reopened schools two weeks earlier than us and have seen case numbers slightly more than double there since they did.
'(But) there’s a hint of a plateau now which may be good news.'
