SAGE says Covid hospitalisations are 'highly unlikely' to reach January peak ...

The NHS is 'highly unlikely' to be overwhelmed by Covid this winter even without restrictions, the Government's scientific advisory panel said today.

Modelling by SAGE predicted that the combination of vaccine-acquired immunity and natural protection would be enough to keep hospital rates below levels seen in the second wave.

Even in the most pessimistic scenarios, the group estimated that daily Covid hospital admissions would not rise above 1,500. More optimistic models had them peaking at below 1,000 in winter. 

In documents submitted to ministers last week but only published today, SAGE said there was some evidence that the peak of the third wave, in terms of hospitalisations, 'has already happened'.

But the scientists warned against complacency, adding that there was still a threat if people suddenly drop all precautions, vaccines suddenly wane in younger groups or a new variant becomes dominant. 

The findings will justify the Government's decision not to enact its winter 'Plan B' despite rising infection rates and increasing pressure from NHS bosses, doctors and many high profile scientists. 

The scenarios assume that the rollout of boosters will be 'rapid' and have a 'high uptake' but do not look at the burden of flu on the NHS. Experts predict a big spike in influenza admissions this winter due to a lack of natural immunity on the back of lockdown. 

SAGE urged ministers to be ready to bring in face masks, working from home and vaccine passports if the situation starts to deviate rapidly from the models.

Going hard and fast would reduce the need for 'more stringent, disruptive and longer-lasting measures' later down the line, the advisers concluded. 

The UK is currently recording nearly 47,000 new infections each day after a spike at the start of the new school term, with rates nearly on par with the peak of the second wave. 

But hospital admissions are rising much more slowly with an average of 875 per day now compared to 4,000 in mid-January, which Health Secretary Sajid Javid has said is 'sustainable'.