Covid cases should SLUMP to just 5,000-a-day by Christmas even WITHOUT Plan B ...

Covid cases should SLUMP to just 5,000-a-day by Christmas even WITHOUT Plan B ...
Covid cases should SLUMP to just 5,000-a-day by Christmas even WITHOUT Plan B ...

Covid cases should slump in November by around 85 per cent to just 5,000 per day by Christmas even without Plan B restrictions, according to modelling seen by the Government.

Ministers are understood to be refraining from introducing restrictions including compulsory facemasks, advice to work from home and domestic vaccine passports after seeing projections which show infections declining rapidly within the next few weeks. 

One model, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, suggests that cases will soon peak before falling steeply in the winter months - even without the Government's Plan B. Other unpublished models have also shown similar drops, with experts indicating that cases could fall to around 5,000 cases a day before Christmas, The Telegraph reported.

SAGE scientist Professor John Edmunds told the paper: 'When we were doing the work about two weeks ago, the Health Secretary had made it very clear that the government was not planning to introduce Plan B in the near future.

'Our model was projecting that cases would start to decline some time in the autumn. However, the model also suggests that cases may start to climb again in the spring, due to a combination of waning immunity and increased contacts.'

It comes as a record 325,000 people got their booster jab in a single day, while more than 800,000 people had a third dose over three days as queues again formed at centres across the country. 

The Government is coming under increasing pressure to implement Plan B after daily cases rose beyond 50,000 last week, while hospital admissions increased to more than 1,000. 

Much of the current wave is being driven by high case rates in children, with scientists expecting the 'children's epidemic' to run out of steam soon as immunity in youngsters increases, both through infection and vaccination. 

A vaccination bus offers walk-in Covid vaccinations in London, August 6, 2021

 A vaccination bus offers walk-in Covid vaccinations in London, August 6, 2021

It comes as a record 325,000 people got their booster jab in a single day, while more than 800,000 people over three days had a third jab as queues again formed at centres across the country

It comes as a record 325,000 people got their booster jab in a single day, while more than 800,000 people over three days had a third jab as queues again formed at centres across the country

Prime Minister Boris Johnson

Health Secretary Sajid Javid

Prime Minister Boris Johnson visiting a vaccine centre in London, left, and Health Secretary Sajid Javid during a press conference held in Downing Street, right

Is Plan B imminent? Health chiefs gauge support for 'immediate rollout' of working from home and Covid passports, 'secret document' shows - but Rishi insists it's not necessary 'at the moment' as Covid cases FALL by 11% in week 

Rishi Sunak insisted there was no need to move to Plan B to cut Covid cases today - after health chiefs discussed whether there needed to be an 'immediate rollout' of tougher measures to combat a surge in cases.

The Chancellor insisted that the data shows that bringing back working from home and introducing mandatory Covid passports was not yet required.

His comments to the BBC's Andrew Marr programme came after it was reported that the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) contacted local authorities on Friday to canvass their level of support for the 'immediate rollout of the winter plan - plan B'.

An 'official – sensitive' document seen by the Observer sought opinions from the leaders and chief executives of councils across England to be fed to the Cabinet Office before then end of the day.

But Mr Sunak today said: 'The data does not suggest we should be immediately moving to Plan B.'

However a leading Government scientist said 'some kind of Plan B' was needed immediately.

Professor Adam Finn, who is on the Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), said Covid-19 hospital admissions and deaths are rising, and warned against complacency in what he said is a 'worsening' situation.

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Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who has resisted pleas from health leaders for tighter restrictions despite the rising number of cases, said vaccines will get the country through the winter and out of the pandemic. 

Yesterday, Department of Health bosses reported a further 39,962 cases - down by eleven per cent in a week. However, the number of people dying with Covid rose from 57 on October 27 to 72 - a rise of 26 per cent. 

Labour said it now backed the immediate reintroduction of restrictions, despite Sir Keir Starmer saying on Thursday that the debate over which plan to follow was the 'wrong focus'. 

Chancellor Rishi Sunak told the BBC's Andrew Marr programme there was no need to move to Plan B to cut Covid cases, amid reports that health chiefs have discussed whether there needs to be an 'immediate rollout' of tougher measures. 

The Observer reported that the UK Health Security Agency contacted local authorities on Friday to canvass their level of support for the 'immediate rollout of the winter plan - Plan B'. 

NHS medical director Professor Stephen Powis said infection rates are rising and that NHS England has already administered five million booster jabs. And on Sunday, it said more than 800,000 people had their booster in the past 72 hours.

The Government has launched a media blitz in recent days encouraging people to get a booster, as well as urging those not yet vaccinated to get jabbed.

But Professor Adam Finn, who is on the Joint Committee of Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), has warned that the vaccination programme will not be enough to bring current infection rates under control and warned against complacency in what he said is a 'worsening' situation.

He said people need to be testing themselves, wearing masks and avoiding crowds in enclosed spaces in order to prevent 'a real meltdown'.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid said this week that new cases could reach 100,000 a day, but Downing Street has insisted there is still spare capacity in the NHS and that Plan B will only be activated if it comes under 'significant pressure'.

Plan B includes working-from-home guidance and the mandatory use of face masks.

Asked if it is time to bring in Plan B to tackle coronavirus, Mr Sunak said 'at the moment the data does not suggest that we should be immediately moving to Plan B'.

He told BBC One's The Andrew Marr Show: 'Well, the Prime Minister actually just said that we're looking at the data all the time, as you would expect us to.

'We're monitoring everything, but at the moment the data does not suggest that we should be immediately moving to Plan B, but of course we will keep an eye on that and the plans are ready.'

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