How U.S. intelligence agencies produced reports on Afghanistan but missed ...

How U.S. intelligence agencies produced reports on Afghanistan but missed ...
How U.S. intelligence agencies produced reports on Afghanistan but missed ...

Extensive reports on Afghanistan produced by four U.S. intelligence agencies in the run-up to the withdrawal of foreign troops all failed to predict the speed at which the Taliban would capture Kabul, according to a review published on Thursday.

Instead they offered 'scattershot assessments' of the staying power of the Afghan military and government, reported the Wall Street Journal.

They extrapolated from Taliban advances from spring 2020 until July, and forecast that the government in Kabul was unlikely to survive once U.S. troops left. 

They differed in how long that would take - and none predicted that the Taliban would race into the capital by Aug. 15 while American forces were still on the ground.

The chaotic scenes at Kabul airport, and the deaths of 13 U.S. personnel in a suicide attack, have left lingering questions about why no one forecast the collapse and whether President Biden should have dropped his Aug. 31 deadline for leaving the country.

In May, a month after President Biden announced his decision to withdraw, the Central Intelligence Agency produced a report entitled 'Government at Risk of Collapse Following U.S. Withdrawal.'

President Joe Biden ordered troops out of Afghanistan by the end August, but the operation ended in chaos as the Taliban stormed into the capital Kabul before U.S. soldiers had left

President Joe Biden ordered troops out of Afghanistan by the end August, but the operation ended in chaos as the Taliban stormed into the capital Kabul before U.S. soldiers had left

Taliban gunmen are now a common sight in Kabul, replacing troops of the government of Ashraf Ghani, who fled the country in the middle of August

Taliban gunmen are now a common sight in Kabul, replacing troops of the government of Ashraf Ghani, who fled the country in the middle of August

Its estimate was that President Ashraf Ghani's administration would fall by the end of the year, the newspaper reported.

Another forecast came a month later from the agency, called 'Afghanistan: Assessing Prospects for a Complete Taliban Takeover Within Two Years.' 

A June 4 Defense Intelligence Agency

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