Inside the bizarre Covid modelling Mark McGowan used to justify WA's border ...

Inside the bizarre Covid modelling Mark McGowan used to justify WA's border ...
Inside the bizarre Covid modelling Mark McGowan used to justify WA's border ...

Modelling used to justify keeping Western Australia's borders closed until next year forecasts the state will rack up 104,000 cases in 12 months if it opens up to the rest of the country too early.

Premier Mark McGowan on Friday doubled down on a promise to keep his state borders closed until 90 per cent of locals aged over 12 are double-vaccinated.

That may not be achieved until late January or early February 2022 as only 65.4 per cent of WA residents are currently double-jabbed - compared to a national rate of 79.6 per cent.

Flight Centre chief executive Graham Turner said he is considering challenging the border closure and claims his lawyers 'are quite confident we can be successful'. 

WA Premier Mark McGowan pictured with his wife Sarah. He looks set to try and defy the national plan to reopen state borders with a 70-80 per cent fully vaccinated public. He wants to stay shut until WA reached 90 per cent double jabbed - which may not happen there until February

WA Premier Mark McGowan pictured with his wife Sarah. He looks set to try and defy the national plan to reopen state borders with a 70-80 per cent fully vaccinated public. He wants to stay shut until WA reached 90 per cent double jabbed - which may not happen there until February

New WA Government modelling predicts there will be 104,251 Covid cases within a year of opening up at the 80 per cent mark, more than the 94,669 infections Victoria has recorded during the entire pandemic

New WA Government modelling predicts there will be 104,251 Covid cases within a year of opening up at the 80 per cent mark, more than the 94,669 infections Victoria has recorded during the entire pandemic

Australians were left confused by modelling from WA's Covid-19 transition plan on Friday

Australians were left confused by modelling from WA's Covid-19 transition plan on Friday

New WA Government modelling predicts there will be 104,251 Covid cases within a year of opening up at the 80 per cent double-dose vaccination mark, more than the 94,669 infections Victoria has recorded during the entire pandemic. 

The modelling also predicts 117 residents will die in a year in WA at a 90 per cent double-dose rate, more than the 106 predicted to be admitted to intensive care wards.

The data sparked confusion from Australians on Twitter. 

'Genuine question: how could it be that the WA Health model projects more deaths than ICU admissions over a year at 90% vaccination rate?' ABC journalist Casey Briggs tweeted.

Commenters speculated the death rate may not count residents who die at home or in aged care settings.

Sky News host Laura Jayes said the modelling was 'wild'. 

'After 2 years of fear West Australians are being told they’ll be the new 'Italy' even with the vaccine. And tax payers are the ones footing the bill for this "modelling",' she said.  

Mr

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