Most know from bitter experience that meteorology is far from an exact science, but Britain’s two leading weather forecasting services have given completely contradictory predictions on what we can expect this winter.
The Government-run Met Office has forecast a mild winter, but the BBC’s service predicts it is likely to be cold and harsh.
Experts last night described the opposing long-range forecasts as unparalleled and they risk causing havoc for businesses such as energy suppliers, transport firms, supermarkets and airlines which rely on forecasts to plan ahead.
The Met Office’s three-month outlook from November to the end of January says: ‘A mild three-month period is more likely than a cold one. Consistent with a warming climate, there is a reduction in the chance of cold.’ Its computer forecast model shows a 60 to 80 per cent chance of above-average temperatures across December to February.
But rival forecaster DTN, formerly known as MeteoGroup, predicts the UK is in line for a ‘cold, dry and calm winter’.
The firm, which won the BBC’s multi-million-pound weather contract from the Met Office three years ago, said: ‘This winter is likely to feature a weak polar vortex, bringing increased cold risks from Arctic air masses later in the season. January and February could feature frigid air, similar to last year.’
The Government-run Met Office has forecast a mild winter, but the BBC’s service predicts it is likely to be cold and harsh
MeteoGroup, predicts the UK is in line for a ‘cold, dry and calm winter’
The stark difference has staggered seasoned weathermen who warned that companies could end up misjudging spending decisions worth millions of pounds if they follow the wrong forecast.
John Hammond, who worked for both the BBC and the Met Office and now co-runs forecasting agency Weathertrending, said: ‘It’s meteorological mayhem with huge disagreement on what happens
