The outbreak of new Covid variant Omicron in the province of Gauteng in South Africa has triggered the sharpest rise in hospitalisations of any previous wave, sparking concerns that a similar outbreak in the UK could overwhelm the NHS.
Gauteng alone has seen over 1,000 hospital admissions in the past week, quadrupling the figure recorded just two weeks ago, while South Africa recorded a total of 1,802 hospitalisations in the past week to Friday - the latest day for which data is available.
The virus also appears to be more transmissible, with cases up from around 300 three weeks ago to nearly 7,000 on a seven-day rolling average.
Cases have soared by a massive 408 per cent in just one week while deaths rose from eight to 21 across the same time period, according to the latest figures.
The country's National Institute for Communicable Diseases recorded another 16,366 cases on Saturday, with the vast majority in epicentre Gauteng province - a 408 per cent increase from last weekend when just 3,220 new infections were registered across the previous 24 hours.
It is not known which variant the new cases recorded were.
Professor Rudo Mathivha, an intensive care specialist at the Chris Hani Baragwanath Academic Hospital on the outskirts of Johannesburg said: 'We shouldn't be seeing these kinds of numbers this early in the wave,' as he spoke of a 15-year-old that had died from pneumonia complications brought about by Covid.
A woman is tested for COVID-19 at the Lenasia South Hospital, near Johannesburg, South Africa, Wednesday, Dec. 1, 2021. Doctors are concerned about the rising number of hospitalisations in the country, particularly in the epicentre Gauteng province
The above graphic is published by the NICD every day to show the country's official Covid cases count. The bold figures underneath each province's names are the new infections detected every day, while the number below is the number of active cases (numbers for today not yet available)
'We should not be seeing a young child who is moderate to severely symptomatic needing supplementary oxygen or high care intervention. It is this which is worrying me,' he told the Telegraph.
The Omicron-stricken country recorded 21 deaths on Saturday, up 162 per cent from last week when 8 deaths were announced.
The latest figures bring the total number of cases in South Africa up to 3,020,569, while the number of deaths have increased to a total of 89,956.
South Africa is seeing a meteoric rise in its cases amid the rampant spread of the Omicron variant, which scientists say has already reached every province in the country.
Sharing Omicron figures from the Steve Biko/Tshwane District Hospital Complex, she tweeted: 'Most COVID-19 patients didn't know they had COVID when they got admitted (they were admitted for another condition).'
Public Health officials in Gauteng — where Johannesburg is based — say their R rate has surged to 3.5 from around one a month ago. It means every ten people infected with the virus are now spreading it to 35 others. In the UK, the R rate has never risen above 1.6.
While Omicron's infectiousness seems unquestionable, there is growing uncertainty about how well it can evade vaccines and how severe the illness it causes will be. A pre-print published in the country found the variant was at least two-and-a-half times better at re-infecting people than all other variants.
Public health experts in South Africa and the WHO have insisted cases are only mild and vaccines should still be highly effective against the strain, despite a lack of data. But UK Health Security Agency epidemiologist Meaghan Kall warns that data currently suggests Omicron may be 'worse' than Delta.
Fears are mounting it is already spreading in the UK after Nicola Sturgeon warned six cases were linked to a Steps concert. Official data suggests the variant may be transmitting in England as the proportion of suspected cases rockets. UK officials have confirmed 134 Omicron cases to date.
Britain's Covid crisis has presented a mixed picture today with deaths falling but cases and hospitalisations continuing to rise, according to Government data.
Figures from the country's National Institute for Communicable Diseases showed infections are rocketing in Gauteng province at the epicentre of the outbreak. They are also surging in the country's eight other provinces
The above map shows the percentage change in Covid cases across South Africa today compared to the same time last week. It shows that in eight of the nine provinces infections rocketed by more than 300 per cent week-on-week. The sharpest rise was recorded in Eastern Cape where infections surged 1,068 per cent
UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) figures show 127 people died with the virus yesterday, down 3.1 per cent on last Saturday's total of 131.
But 42,848 new infections were recorded in the country over the last 24 hours, up 8.3 per cent on the 39,567 recorded last week.
It is the fourth day in a row cases have risen across Britain, with officials discovering 75 new cases of the Omicron variant in England yesterday, taking the UK's total number up to 134.
And the number of people admitted to hospital with the virus also increased 5.6 per cent in a week to 812 on Tuesday, the latest date data is available for.
Another 75 cases of the super-mutant Omicron variant were identified in England yesterday, bring the total number of confirmed Omicron infections in England to 104, while the total for the whole of the UK now stands at 134, the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) said.
Cases of the new variant were identified in the East Midlands, East of England, London, North East, North West, South East, South West and West Midlands.
Scotland's cases today increased by 16 to 29, while Wales announced yesterday afternoon that its first case had been found in Cardiff. No cases have been found in Northern Ireland.
Boris Johnson has placed South Africa and a host of other southern African nations on the 'red list' in a bid to slow the variant's 'seeding' in the UK. He has also reimposed face masks in shops, on public transport, and in communal areas of schools in England, and said all close contacts of Omicron cases must self-isolate for ten days.
In South Africa President Cyril Ramaphosa is holding a meeting this weekend. The country remains on alert level one, which only requires face masks to be worn in public places and places some limits on large events.
A hospital worker ensures people practice social distancing as they wait in line to get vaccinated against COVID-19 at the Lenasia South Hospital, near Johannesburg, South Africa, Wednesday, Dec. 1, 2021
The above graph shows estimates of the R rate in Gauteng province at the epicentre of the outbreak. It reveals that the R rate has surged from around one to 3.5 in a month. It means every ten people infected with the virus are passing it on to 35 others
This map shows the number of Omicron cases in the UK and where they have been detected. Nicola Sturgeon has warned the variant is already spreading in the community in Scotland after six cases were linked to a Steps concert in Glasgow
Official data shows that the proportion of positive Covid tests with a mutation synonymous with the highly-evolved strain is on the rise in the UK. Like Alpha, or the 'Kent variant', Omicron has a specific alteration which means it can be detected through PCR tests without the need for genomic sequencing. The proportion of positive tests in England with this so-called S-gene dropout has risen from 0.1 per cent in the past week to 0.3 per cent, the equivalent of one in 330. Scientists said the increase in S-gene dropouts suggests there could be hundreds of Omicron cases that are flying under the radar currently
South Africa's test positivity rate — the number of swabs that detect the virus — is running very high, however, with almost a quarter of all swabs picking up the virus.
This suggests there are many more infections in the community that are not being diagnosed.
In the UK, the positivity rate is around nine per cent.
President Ramaphosa has so far dodged imposing more restrictions, instead mulling over plans to tell nationals to get two doses of the Covid vaccine.
He has insisted that current restrictions are enough to keep the virus at bay despite surging infection rates.
