White House says Russian invasion of Ukraine could 'come at any point'

White House says Russian invasion of Ukraine could 'come at any point'
White House says Russian invasion of Ukraine could 'come at any point'

Western military analysts have suggested Russia cannot keep such troops deployed where they are indefinitely for financial and logistical reasons and would need to pull them back by summer.

Estimates of the numbers of new Russian troops moved closer to Ukraine vary from 60,000 to around 100,000, with a U.S. intelligence document suggesting that number could be ramped up to 175,000.

U.S. officials have said Russia might attack Ukraine as early as this month when the ground will be harder, making it easier for tanks and other armour to move swiftly.

At talks this week with the United States and NATO, Russia has sought security guarantees to defuse the crisis.

Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Friday Moscow was not ready to wait forever for a response and that it wanted a detailed written response to every Russian proposal.

But what might a Russian attack look like and what could it seek to achieve?

'The current deployments are versatile. They keep Russia's options open and therefore keep the defender guessing,' said Keir Giles, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House.

Here are some possible scenarios.

DONBASS ESCALATION

Heavily armed Russian-backed separatists have controlled a swath of eastern Ukraine since 2014 and continue to exchange fire with Ukrainian government forces despite a 2015 ceasefire that ended major hostilities.

The conflict in Donbass has killed 15,000 people, Kyiv says. Ukraine has long accused Russia of having regular troops in the region, something Moscow denies.

Russia has accused Kyiv of harbouring plans to retake the region by force, something Ukraine denies.

A militant of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) checks a machine gun at fighting positions on the line of separation from the Ukrainian armed forces near the rebel-controlled settlement of Yasne (Yasnoye) in Donetsk region

A militant of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic (DNR) checks a machine gun at fighting positions on the line of separation from the Ukrainian armed forces near the rebel-controlled settlement of Yasne (Yasnoye) in Donetsk region

In such a febrile atmosphere, the risk of a misunderstanding or unplanned escalation is greater, and Russia could use such an incident as a casus belli.

A source familiar with the Russian Defence Ministry's thinking said this was the most likely scenario if Moscow decided to attack, but that he was unaware of any such decision. Kyiv might also be provoked into attacking by the separatists who could then ask Russia to send troops to help, he said.

Russian forces could expand the fighting in Donbass to draw Ukraine into a conventional conflict, said Neil Melvin, director of International Security Studies at the RUSI

read more from dailymail.....

PREV Ringing in the changes for the great British phone box: From the iconic red ... trends now
NEXT Karlie Kloss reveals she's relaunching LIFE Magazine with her husband Josh ... trends now