It's now, or possibly never, for the Hall of Fame bids of baseball's most notorious accused steroid users: Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens.
The pair - which have eight MVP awards and seven Cy Young honors between them - are in their 10th and final year on the ballot for the Baseball Writers' Association of America. Due largely to allegations of performance-enhancing drug use, they have been unable to reach the 75 percent threshold to earn a place among baseball's greats.
Bonds got 61.8 percent of the vote in 2021, and Clemens 61.6 percent. So far this year, Bonds has been included on 78.1 percent of public ballots tracked by bbhottracker.com, and Clemens is at 77 percent. The tracker has counted roughly 48 percent of the expected ballots, and players have historically received a lower percentage of votes from members who don't disclose their picks.
That means Bonds, with seven MVPs and a record 762 home runs, and Clemens, with seven Cy Youngs and an MVP, are likely to be frozen out. However, they would be eligible in 2023 for selection by the Era Committee (formerly known as the Veteran's Committee), which votes on candidates twice every five years.
Bonds, Clemens and David Ortiz - another accused steroid user - appear to be the only players with a chance at Hall of Fame enshrinement when results are unveiled Tuesday. Ortiz will likely get in on his first try.
The 10-time All-Star who spent most of his career with the Boston Red Sox is on 84.5 percent of public ballots, thanks to his reputation as one of baseball's best clutch hitters. Ortiz famously beat the rival Yankees with a walk-off homer and a walk-off RBI single in Games 5 and 6 of the 2004 American League Championship Series at Fenway Park.
He leads a group of 13 first-time eligible players that also includes, yet, another accused steroids user, Alex Rodriguez, as well as Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Tim Lincecum. Only A-Rod and Rollins seem to be getting serious consideration from voters, but neither will be close to induction this year.
Barry Bonds, with seven MVPs and a record 762 home runs, could miss out on Cooperstown
Seven-time Cy Young Roger Clemens needs a lift from voters to get the requisite 75 percent
So far this year, Bonds has been included on 78.1 percent of public ballots tracked by bbhottracker.com, and Clemens is at 77 percent. The tracker has counted roughly 48 percent of the expected ballots, and players have historically received a lower percentage of votes from members who don't disclose their picks
Curt Schilling is also in his final year, but his support has dropped off since he finished 16 votes shy last year.
Players elected Tuesday will be enshrined July 24 in Cooperstown along with era committee selections Buck O'Neil, Minnie Miñoso, Gil Hodges, Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat and Bud Fowler.
Bonds, Clemens and Rodriguez look like no-doubt Hall of Famers on the backs of their baseball cards, but PED suspicions have tarnished their reputations with many voters.
Bonds has denied knowingly using PEDs, while Clemens has denied taking them outright. Rodriguez was banned by Major League Baseball for the entire 2014 season after violating the league's drug policy.
Ortiz also comes with some PED baggage, but voters are less bothered by the more shaky evidence of his use. His lone reported positive test for PEDs came during survey testing in 2003 that was supposed to be anonymous and used to determine whether to institute regular testing. Ortiz denied using steroids, and Commissioner Rob Manfred said in 2016 'I think it would be wrong' to exclude him from the Hall of Fame based on that lone test.
With a .286 average and 541 home runs, Ortiz may also stand to benefit from a recent shift by voters in their evaluations of designated hitters. Frank Thomas, Edgar Martinez and Harold Baines have all entered the Hall since 2014. Martinez made 71.7 percent of his plate appearances as a DH, most among Hall members. Ortiz would pass him at 88 percent.
BBWAA members are instructed to elect Hall members 'based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played.' Nobody was selected last year, with
