Sweden has logged one of the lowest pandemic death tolls in Europe despite its refusal to impose lockdowns, World Health Organization estimates suggest.
In the most comprehensive look into the pandemic's fatality count yet, the WHO estimated that almost 15million deaths were logged from the start of 2020 to the end of 2021 - nearly three times higher than the official count.
But Sweden, which became an international outlier when it refused to follow the rest of the world in shutting down society to limit the virus' spread, logged a lower death rate than many European nations that imposed strict curbs.
Sweden relied on citizens' sense of civic duty to protect the population, claiming lockdowns were neither 'necessary' or 'defensible'.
Authorities advised residents to practice social distancing, however schools, bars and restaurants remained open.
Out of the 194 countries that the WHO looked at, the Sweden ranked 101st with a death rate of 56 per 100,000 people, well below the average of 90.
For comparison, the UK logged 109 deaths per 100,000, while Spain saw 111 and Germany recorded 116.
However, Sweden performed worse than its Scandinavian neighbours, with Denmark logging just 32 excess deaths per 100,000 and Norway logging one fewer death per 100,000 than expected.
Experts told MailOnline Sweden's approach led to 'much better' outcomes than predicted and compared to most of Western Europe.
But they noted that the excess death rate in other Nordic countries — which logged some of the lowest fatality tolls in the world — need to be further studied to understand why.
Out of the 194 countries that the WHO looked at, the Sweden ranked 101st with a death rate of 56 per 100,000 people, well below the average of 90. For comparison, the UK logged 109 deaths per 100,000, while Spain logged 111 and Germany recorded 116
In the most comprehensive look into the pandemic's fatality count yet, the WHO estimated that almost 15million deaths were logged from the start of 2020 to the end of 2021. Peru has logged the most excess deaths in relation to its population, with an extra 437 fatalities for every 100,000 people than expected. The US had the 40th highest excess death rate (140 per 100,000), while the UK came 56th (109 per 100,000)
WHO scientists estimated the global Covid death toll between January 2020 and January 2022 by calculating the difference between the number of deaths that have occurred and the number of deaths that were expected, based on data from previous years.
They estimated there were 14.9million deaths that could be attributed to Covid, but the figure could be as high as 16.6 million.
For comparison, the current official virus death toll is 6.2million, with a third of those logged in the US, Brazil and India.
The UN agency's tally, which misses off the entirety of 2022, is based on excess death data.
This include fatalities from all causes and it is considered the most consistent way to measure pandemic death tolls because it accounts for a lack of swabbing and undiagnosed cases.
Its analysis shows Sweden logged around half as many excess deaths than the UK, Spain, Germany and Italy, where people spent months of the pandemic in lockdown.
Sweden also saw fewer excess deaths than Portugal, where 100 were logged per 100,000, as well as the Netherlands (85), Belgium (77), Austria (66) and France (63).
However, some of its neighbours logged an even smaller virus death rate.
Finland had a pandemic excess death toll of 26 per 100,000, while figures were also lower in Ireland (29), Denmark (32) and Switzerland (47).
And Norway logged one fewer death per 100,000 people than expected.
Cambridge University epidemiologist Dr Raghib Ali told MailOnline that the WHO findings are consistent with earlier analysis published in the Lancet in March, which showed Sweden's excess death rate was lower than most other Western European nations.
The Lancet study, by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in the US, showed Sweden had one of the lowest excess death rates in Europe, at 91.2 per 100,000. Only Finland (80.8), Luxembourg (89.2) and Iceland (-47.8) recorded a lower excess fatality rate.
However, Dr Ali noted that other Nordic countries — which have some of the lowest death rates in the world — performed even better 'which we need to investigate further to understand why'.
'However, it’s certainly true that the approach taken by Sweden — keeping schools open and relying mainly on voluntary changes in behaviour rather than government mandates — has led to outcomes much better than were predicted and most of Western Europe,' Dr Ali said.
'This is similar to what we’ve seen in the UK with voluntary changes in behaviour in England leading to similar outcomes to those in other home nations which had more government mandates,' he added.
The WHO's analysis shows 20 countries, including the UK and the US, accounted for more than 80 per cent of the estimated 'excess deaths' over the first two years of the pandemic.
The vast majority of the fatalities (84 per cent) occurred in South-East Asia (5.9million), Europe (3.3million) and the Americas (3.23million), followed by Africa (1.3million), Eastern-Mediterranean (1.1million) and the Western Pacific (0.1million).
Peru had the highest excess death rate per 100,000 people (437), followed by Bulgaria (415), Bolivia (375), North Macedonia (369) and Russia (367).
The WHO graphs show the difference between reported deaths and excess mortality per region. The shaded grey areas show the number of deaths reported to the WHO by countries, while the red lines indicated the estimated excess death rate (the additional people who have died more than the expected number of deaths). Where the red line dips below zero, it indicates that less people died than expected due to pandemic-related changes in behaviour and society. The red numbers in the top right corner of each graph show the total excess mortality from January 1 2020 to December 31 2021
The WHO charts show the difference in reported deaths (shaded grey areas) and excess morality (red lines) when countries are split into World Bank income groups. The red numbers in the top right corner of each graph show the total excess mortality from January 1 2020 to December 31 2021
The US had came 40th out of the 194 countries the WHO looked at, with 140 excess deaths per 100,000 people, while the UK came 56th (109 per 100,000).
Its analysis also confirms that more men were struck down by Covid than women, with 57 per cent of virus deaths among men.
The figures include those who died from Covid, as well as those who died due to the pandemic's impact on health systems, such as deaths among people with cancer who were unable to seek treatment because hospitals were full of virus patients.
The WHO there could be even more Covid deaths because some fatalities were averted during the pandemic, such as fewer deaths in road
