Monday 23 May 2022 10:55 AM Peter Dutton favourite to replace Scott Morrison as Liberal Party leader - here ... trends now

Peter Dutton is heavily favoured to replace Scott Morrison as Liberal leader, but could face stiff opposition from the party's moderate wings.

Shell-shocked heavyweights are jockeying to fill both the top spots after former deputy Josh Frydenberg was outed from his seat at the election.

With the former treasurer, and expected Morrison successor, now unemployed alongside other touted future leaders, Mr Dutton is widely expected to win.

Mr Dutton was also considered a lock to replace Malcolm Turnbull when he was ousted as prime minister on August 24, 2018, only for Mr Morrison to emerge. 

Many in the party are concerned he represents a brand of conservatism that was rejected at the polls in a huge swing to the Greens and 'teal' independents.

But others believe the best hope is to fully embrace conservatism in line with Mr Dutton's vision, to create starker points of difference with Labor.

Outgoing trade minister Dan Tehan, home affairs minister Karen Andrews, and finance minister Simon Birmingham are all tipped as potential challengers to lead the party in a new direction.

However, none of them have voiced a desire to run amid reports they may not be interested in the job - or at least in taking on Mr Dutton. 

The field for the deputy leader position is more open and expected to be extremely competitive with up to half a dozen candidates.

In addition to Mr Tehan, Ms Andrews, and Mr Birmingham are Tasmanian MP Bridget Archer, outgoing social services minister Anne Ruston, superannuation minister Jane Hume, attorney-general Michaelia Cash, and environment minister Sussan Ley are all possibilities.

Outgoing foreign minister Marise Payne is rumoured to be considering retirement after serving in the Senate since 1997.

A special party meeting to select new leadership could be held this week, but with the Liberal licking their wounds and assessing what went wrong on Saturday, there is little reason to rush.

More likely it will be held in the days before the next sitting of Parliament, which is scheduled for June 6 but will change at new PM Anthony Albanese's direction.

Peter Dutton

Outgoing defence minister Mr Dutton is the overwhelming favourite to claim the Liberal Party leadership at a vote next month.

He is the leader of the party in the House if Representatives and almost seized power at another vote in 2018.

His main competition was Josh Frydenberg, who was knocked over by a teal independent, along with other rising stars in the party.

An election night bloodbath toppled 10 moderate Liberal MPs, including some leadership contenders, greatly increasing Mr Dutton's chances.

Mr Dutton's election would lurch the Liberal to the right, back to its conservative base and abandon inner-city seats to independents and The Greens.

He has the support of all conservative MPs and the party's right wing faction, including Senator Matt Canavan.

'Usually when you get tossed out of government Queensland swings and it didn't this time,' he told Sky News.

'I think that is in large part due to the strong, conservative leadership that Peter Dutton provides there and gives people hope to rally behind our brand.'

Alan Tudge, who hopes to return to the front bench after standing down during an investigation into interactions he had with a staffer, agreed.

'I think he'll be incredibly effective actually,' he told Sky News.

'He's a person of immense character, experience, he has very deep values in the Liberal Party and I think we need to go back to those values.'

Simon Birmingham

The outgoing finance minister is known to harbour leadership aspirations and is the top member of the moderate faction left after Mr Frydenberg's demise.

Mr Birmingham, 47, has been in parliament since 2007 and is a veteran minister, and worked as a lobbyist before running for office.

His alternate plan to Mr Dutton's is to move with the times and follow public sentiment on climate change to win back wealthy inner-city seats.

It would also mean forgoing 'culture war' issues like gay marriage by returning to the party's roots in social liberalism.

Mr Birmingham identified 'the failure in relation to the national energy guarantee', where the party's right killed then-PM Mr Turnbull's emission reduction plan, as a turning point that eventually led to the teal wave.

'The what and the why are issues such as climate change,' he told the ABC on Sunday.

'We acknowledge the need for Australia to play a leading role in action around the world and that we get our language as well as our policies right in that space.'

Mr Birmingham said he was not sure who he would support for leader, and with 10 moderates losing their seats would likely not have the numbers to challenge Dutton.

Karen Andrews

The Liberal Party's top ranked woman and outgoing home affairs minister has not ruled out running for leader and is likely to at least challenge for deputy.

Elected to the Queensland seat of McPherson in 2010, she quickly rose through the ranks to become home affairs minister last March, succeeding Mr Dutton.

Before that sjhe was science minister where she became a 'key player' in Australia's early response to the Covid pandemic.

Ms Andrews voted for Mr Dutton in 2018, but switched her support to Mr Morrison in the second ballot.

She is friendly to moderate positions on climate change, urging the party in January 2020  to 'move on' from its scepticism on the issue.

'Every second that we spend talking about whether or not the climate is changing is a second that we are not spending on looking at adaptation [and] mitigation strategies,' she said.

'It really is time for everyone to move on and look at what we're going to do.'

Ms Andrews is an outside chance for leader and a strong contender for deputy as many in the party believe the second spot must be a woman, given the teal independents were all female.

After saying it was too early to think about leadership aspirations, she on Sunday told 4BC radio should consider  'what role will allow me to add the most value'.

'I'm going to consider my position over the next day or so,' she said, confirming she would 'certainly' at least consider deputy leader.

Dan Tehan

Mr Tehan, 54, has never held a top level portfolio, serving as trade minister since December 2020, but is still considered an outside chance if he runs.

A member of the party's centre-right faction, he  opposes gay marriage and as education minister oversaw a policy hiking the fees for arts degrees.

He also supported Tony Abbott for leader when the prime minister was ousted by Mr Turnbull in 2015.

Mr Tehan said running for Liberal leader was  'last thing on my mind' but he didn't rule it out.

'What we've got to do is make sure we are looking after those who have lost their seats, make sure we are scrutinising every last vote that comes in,' he told Sky News.

'At this stage what we need to be doing is making sure we regroup and come together.'

Angus Taylor

Mr Taylor, 55, only entered parliament in 2013 but had a long career as a management consultant before politics.

He was instrumental in the creation of dairy giant Fonterra in New Zealand after he 'spent four years working on a master plan: to unify the bitterly divided industry into a single national champion'.

This is regarded as 'one of the most successful strategic decisions in agri-business history' and is a case study at Harvard Business School.

To run for election in Hume he uprooted his family from Woollahra in Sydney's eastern suburbs, to a farm outside of Goulburn.

Early in his political career he wrote memos arguing green energy technologies were too expensive and inefficient and promoted gas as a better carbon reduction option.

However, he insisted he was not a climate change sceptic and said 'I do not have a vendetta against renewables'.

Mr Taylor has been mentioned either as a possible outside challenger to Mr Dutton, or a contender for the deputy leadership, but has not commented on it.

However, he has a series of scandals under his belt, including an allegedly forged document that was investigated by state and federal police until it was dropped for lack of evidence in February 2020.

He was accused of using $80 million of taxpayers' money to buy water licences from two Queensland properties owned by Eastern Australia Agriculture, of which he was a director until 2009, but was cleared by an investigation.

A Roy Morgan survey in March found Mr Taylor was Australia's seventh least trusted politician, only better than Dominic Perrottet, Craig Kelly, Pauline Hanson, Barnaby Joyce, Mr Dutton, and Mr Morrison.

Bridget Archer

Ms Archer is the first Liberal MP to put her hand up for the deputy position, but first has to win her own seat, which is too close to call.

With 73.6 per cent of the vote counted, she is ahead by 1,232 votes in the Tasmania seat of Bass against Labor challenger Ross Hart.

The 47-year-old whose father died when she was eight is a member of the moderate faction and hopes to balance the ticket if Mr Dutton become leader.

Joining the leadership would be a departure from her history of rebellion against conservative policies like gay marriage and transgender rights.

She was one of four Liberals to cross the floor in February in support of an amendment to the Sex Discrimination Act to protect transgender students.

Earlier in November 2021 she crossed the floor in support of a federal anti-corruption body - a key policy of Mr Albanese.

She also opposed cashless welfare cards, which she called a 'punitive measure' that assumed all welfare recipients couldn't handle their finances. 

Ms Andrews said she would run for a leadership position to drag the Liberals back towards the centre.

'From my point of view, there are a lot of lessons to come out of this election… for the Liberal Party,' she told local radio.

'I think that the Liberal Party does need to find its way back to the centre, which is where Australia lies electorally, and that's where the future success of the Liberal Party lies: a return to the centre.

'So if I can play some part in achieving that move back to that more centrist politics, then I would seek to do so.'

Ms Archer has a solid chance at deputy as many in the party think it needs to be filled by a woman, but her status as a moderate and rebel will work against her with 10 moderates voted out of parliament.

Michaelia Cash

Holding one of the top portfolios in the land, as attorney-general, until the government fell at the election, Senator Cash's name often comes up.

Working in her favour for deputy is being part of the National Right faction and being female, but being in the Senate makes her candidacy unlikely.